The world of Texas barbecue is shivering with anticipation. On Tuesday, May 27, Texas Monthly will publish its latest ranking of the state’s 50 best barbecue joints.

Released every four years, the list is considered by many to be the definitive guide to Texas barbecue. Part of that authority comes from the effort Texas Monthly puts into traveling across the state in search of the best smoked meats, sides, and desserts. For the 2021 edition, the magazine enlisted 35 writers to visit more than 400 restaurants. While the numbers on the 2025 edition won’t be revealed until next week, readers can expect a similar, or perhaps even more exhaustive, effort this time around.

In that spirit, let’s make some predictions about what the 2025 list may look like. While I don’t have any specific insight into the thinking of Texas Monthly barbecue editor Daniel Vaughn, I am a voracious reader of his work and a native Texas who enjoys a good barbecue road trip. The predictions below are based on my analysis of Texas Monthly’s previous lists and visits to most of the places I think will be in the top 10.

Let’s be clear. The state of Texas barbecue has never been more competitive, because barbecue restaurants have never worked harder to impress diners. In 2017, a restaurant that served prime meats, cooked with wood, and made respectable sides had a high probability of making the top 50. In 2021, a lot of those places fell off in favor of establishments that both cooked a wider range of proteins than the traditional beef brisket, pork ribs, and sausage and put more personality into their sides, and, for the first time, desserts.

In 2025, those restaurants are being challenged by places that go a little further. Many are open for lunch and dinner — something that was essentially unthinkable in 2017. More and more are incorporating flavors from a diverse array of culinary traditions, including Mexican, Vietnamese, Persian, and more. The best places are making their own breads, whether it’s dinner rolls, pita, or tortillas. Whatever Texas Monthly decides, vigorous debate will surely follow.

Examining the changes from 2017 to 2021 provides a basis for predicting 2025.

No sacred cows
Barbecue joints do not earn a place on the list based on reputation or historical significance. In 2021, the magazine included a whopping 29 new entries, including five of the coveted top 10. Icons like Cooper’s in Llano and Kreuz Market in Lockhart gave way to newcomers like Austin’s Interstellar, which ranked No. 2 — pushing the legendary Franklin Barbecue to No. 7. Even a spot in the previous edition’s top 10 doesn’t guarantee a place in the new top 50.

Youth will be served
The magazine’s 2023 list of the The 25 Best New and Improved BBQ Joints in Texas provides some insight into who will make the top 50. Expect at least one member of the new top 10 to have opened since the publication of the 2023 list.

Michelin who?
Barbecue restaurants earned 28 of the 117 entries in the first Texas edition of the Michelin Guide, including four restaurants that received stars (out of 15 total). That probably won’t matter much to Texas Monthly, which uses its own criteria to evaluate barbecue joints. In other words, Spring’s CorkScrew BBQ may have a Michelin star, but it probably isn’t returning to the TxMo top 10.

Expect surprises
The magazine likes to lead opinions rather than follow conventional wisdom. That tradition goes back to at least 2008, when Snow’s in Lexington became the surprise No. 1. In 2021, both Goldee’s and Interstellar were surprise picks to rank No. 1 and No. 2, but they’ve both flourished in the spotlight created by Texas Monthly’s acclaim. Somewhere in Texas, a barbecue joint no one predicts is about to have its fortunes forever changed with a spot in the top 10.

Predicting the top 10

Similar to my predictions for the Michelin Guide, I decided to look at the Texas Monthly list from a sports betting perspective. Certain restaurants are more likely to rank highly than others, after all. In the spirit, I’ve divided the restaurants into three categories: Locks, Probably, and Fingers Crossed. Each category is presented in alphabetical order.

Before diving in, a special shoutout to Bryan Norton and Andrew Martinez of the Tales From the Pits podcast. Outside of Texas Monthly barbecue editor Daniel Vaughn, no one I know visits as many barbecue joints or thinks as deeply about their quality. Listen to their recent episodes detailing their top 15 Texas barbecue joints and Texas Monthly top 50 predictions for more insight.

Locks

Burnt Bean Co.: The Seguin restaurant was less than a year old when it ranked No. 4 on the 2021 list. Since then, co-owners Ernest Servantes and David Kirkland have rolled out their essential Sunday breakfast service, where Servantes puts a barbecue spin on iconic dishes such as huevos rancheros and lamb barbacoa. It’s my current pick for the best in Texas.

Goldee’s: The reigning No. 1 has only gotten better since 2021 as co-owners Jalen Heard, Lane Milne, and Jonny White have integrated the lessons they learned working at some of the state’s top joints with their own personalities. Located near Fort Worth, they do it all, from housemade bread to creative sides to adding international flavors like the Thai-style waterfall pulled pork I sampled on a recent visit.

LeRoy and Lewis: Ranked No. 5 in 2021, the Austin restaurant moved from a food truck to a polished brick-and-mortar in 2024. Now open for lunch and dinner six days a week, the restaurant’s refined offerings include beef cheeks, whole hog, cauliflower burnt ends, and a top-flight burger. Its Friday night steak special, available by reservation only, is the stuff carnivore dreams are made of.

Probably

Barbs B Q: The restaurant brings new school cred to Lockhart. Not only did pitmaster Chuck Charnichart hone her skills at Goldee’s, she brings personality to the menu with touches like fresh lime zest on the pork ribs and the signature green spaghetti, a chile-spiced ode to her hometown of Brownsville. This is the restaurant from the 2023 new and improved list that seems most likely to crack the top 10.

Cattleack: Ranked in the top 10 in both 2017 (No. 3) and 2021 (No. 6), it’s hard to imagine that the best barbecue in Dallas falls out of the top 10. The restaurant is open more days per week than ever before, and its menu remains as wide-ranging as ever, with seven full-time proteins that are joined by weekly specials.

Redbird: Barbecue enthusiasts statewide have been making the pilgrimage to the East Texas town of Port Neches (near Beaumont) to try pitmaster Amir Jalali’s creations. Not only did he train at both Feges BBQ in Houston and Goldee’s, he’s embraced the full DIY experience with housemade dinner rolls, a Caesar salad-inspired riff on coleslaw, and a Persian-influenced beef koobideh sausage that’s served with housemade pita bread. Houstonians looking for a barbecue adventure — or a detour on their way to a Louisiana casino — should make the journey.

Truth: Ranked No. 3 in 2021, the Houston location of Leonard Botello IV’s joint continues to expand its vision of Texas barbecue. The restaurant is now open for dinner, serves a first-rate burger, and recently added new tastes such as the cold smoked, cornmeal-crusted pork chop that’s absolutely can’t-miss. Houstonians might make Texas Monthly bonfires in the parking lot if it’s left off the list.

Fingers Crossed

Bar-A-BBQ: Located outside Houston in Montgomery, pitmaster Cooper Abercrombie earned a spot on the new and improved list for well-executed sausages, creative sides, and Saturday morning breakfast service that includes breakfast tacos and kolaches. This one feels a little like Tejas, where the magazine bets that an up-and-comer is ready to make the leap to barbecue royalty.

Dayne’s: Since making the top 50 in 2021, the Fort Worth-area favorite has stepped up its game by moving from a food truck to a brick-and-mortar in the suburb of Aledo. Known for its creative sausages and award-winning burger, the restaurant may have done enough to force its way into the top 10.

Interstellar: Ranked No. 2 and sporting a Michelin star, John Bates brings a fine dining pedigree and a chef’s knack for innovation to his Austin-area restaurant. Signatures like peach-tea brined pork belly and pulled lamb shoulder remain as vital as ever. Falling out of the top 10 would be pretty unlikely, but someone’s got to make room for the newcomers.

Sabar: Like Barbs and Redbird, this Fort Worth-area food truck is led by a Goldee’s alum in Zain Shafi. The Pakistani-influenced menu broadens the range of Texas barbecue with dishes such as nihari burnt ends, tandoori turkey, and seekh kebab sausage. Goldee’s co-owner Lane Milne strongly encouraged me to add Sabar to my Fort Worth itinerary — maybe he was trying to give me a hint that its line was about to get a lot longer.

Snow’s and Franklin: Arguably the two most famous Texas barbecue joints in the world, they topped the 2017 list and ranked No. 9 and No. 7, respectively, in 2021. No one’s saying they’ve gotten worse — just look at the massive number of people who still line up at both restaurants — but the newer joints are serving so much more expansive menus (at just as high a level of quality) that it’s hard to see both staying in the top 10.