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    Real Estate Predictions

    How long will Houston boom last? Top 5 real estate predictions for 2014

    Ralph Bivins
    Dec 30, 2013 | 10:58 am

    Houston’s real estate market is one of the hottest in the world. Nothing this good lasts forever and some say job growth won’t be as strong next year. But the boom is not over yet.

    With a few exceptions, both residential and commercial real estate will continue to sizzle in 2014 and produce as much pop as it did in 2013.

    Here are the top five predictions for Houston real estate in 2014:

    1. Home sales will soar; prices will reach a historic climax

    The inventory of homes-for-sale is at a record-low as 2013 comes to a close. The pent-up demand is huge. Thousands of buyers, frustrated with losing in bidding wars and today’s small selection of options, jump into the market and buy houses as spring uncoils.

    Lawrence Yun predicts 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will be at 5.4 percent by the end of 2014, up from the current rate of about 4.5 percent.

    Hordes of relocation buyers swarm into Houston as Exxon Mobil, Geico, Chevron and other corporations shuffle employees in 2014. Look for the median home price in Houston to rise 8 percent in 2014.

    Complications: Mortgage interest rates rise. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, predicts 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will be at 5.4 percent by the end of 2014, up from the current rate of about 4.5 percent. It won’t make things any easier for the first-time home buyer.

    2. Apartment developers continue to binge-build in 2014 before a sobering sets in around next Thanksgiving

    New multifamily projects pop up on the skyline faster than mushrooms in a damp cow pasture. Downtown residential excites in 2014 with the Marvy Finger building next to Minute Maid stadium and Hines going high-rise at Market Square. Developers erect apartments in far-out suburbia in addition to the phenomenal boom in the Inner Loop. Rents have gone up 6 percent over the last year or so and even more increases lie ahead in 2014, according to Delta Associates. Apartments attract renters who don’t like the higher priced mortgages facing homebuyers. Young professionals abhor the suburbs and don’t buy into the American Dream of homebuying like prior generations, providing more fuel for multifamily.

    Complications: Even with Houston’s amazing job growth, sometime in the fourth quarter of next year, the voice of moderation will whisper across the marketplace: “Do we really need to break ground on another apartment?”

    3. Shopping center market finally takes off, turns on the after-burners

    Retail-oriented real estate (shopping centers, etc.) has been the ugly orphan in Houston’s recent real estate surge. Apartments, the office market and residential boomed, while retail was a modest performer. The maxim is true: “Retail follows rooftops.” And Houston has added a lot of rooftops, from new apartment towers in the Inner Loop to single-family homes in the suburbs, so retail is blossoming. Lots of retailers coming in: from grocers to fast food outlets. Fresh Market, Sprouts, HEB, Whole Foods, Aldi, all adding new locations. Landlords have moaned as rents have been declining in many shopping centers. But the turnaround is happening and rents will increase in 2014. The threat of online sales may not be as bad as feared as Christmas delivery issues dented the invincibility that cloaked online retail.

    The maxim is true: “Retail follows rooftops.”

    Complications: Houston can’t be a great city without downtown retail. Macy’s was demolished. Houston Pavilions sputtered. Mayor Annise Parker appointed blue-ribbon retail task force for downtown, but so far not much has happened to the streetscape. Midway Cos. and Magic Johnson’s Canyon-Johnson are redeveloping the Pavilions as GreenStreet, a providing a slim ray of hope.

    4. Hoteliers get happy. Drought is over. More hotel construction slated.

    Houstonians won’t be able to ignore the hotel construction boom breaking out in 2014. Citywide hotel occupancy is approaching 70 percent, up sharply from the 55 percent in the pits of 2009. Most noteworthy of the new hotel projects will be the 1,000-room Marriott Marquis, adjacent to Discovery Green and the George R. Brown Convention Center. When that 30-story hotel is completed in 2016, Houston will be able to attract larger conventions – that is a given, nothing theoretical about it. Local hotelier Nick Massad is doing his part to build the convention draw by constructing a Hampton Inn and a Homewood Suites on Crawford Street. A JW Marriott will open on Main Street. Across the street from the Galleria, a 350-room Hyatt Regency is under construction.

    The national economy continues to improve and that bodes well for hotel operators. The PKF hotel consulting firm forecasts that national hotel profits will be up 13 percent in 2014.

    Complications: None. Houston hoteliers have a long way to run before they overbuild this market.

    5. Home building roars in Houston, the best single-family market in the nation

    Houston home builders continue to bounce back from the dead lull during the recession. After a good 2013, expect to see more than a 10 percent increase in construction starts in 2014. New builders enter the Houston market, eager to get a piece of the action. Labor shortage and lack of available lots will moderate the pace, which could soar even higher without these restraints.

    After a good 2013, expect to see more than a 10 percent increase in construction starts in 2014.

    Developers and builders will be in hot pursuit of land and new Grand Parkway expansions open up prairie for development. The market for residential land is white hot. The hard years of 2009 to 2011 weeded out the weak operators, so the remaining home-builder corps is seasoned and sharp. An under-publicized fact: Houston is the strongest home building market in the nation with more single-family building permits than any other city, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Houston will remain the leader in 2014.

    Complications: Mortgage rate hikes will put a damper on sales, particularly in the low-end of the market. Builders will compensate by cutting size or amenities to keep starter homes affordable. Financing remains difficult to obtain for smaller developers and builders.

    Ralph Bivins, former president of the National Association of Real Estate Editors, is founding editor of RealtyNewsReport.

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    news/real-estate

    hottest headlines of 2025

    Here are the 10 hottest Houston real estate headlines of 2025

    Amber Heckler
    Dec 29, 2025 | 11:30 am
    Rendering of Texas Heritage Marketplace
    Photo courtesy of NewQuest
    The new Texas Heritage Marketplace will be located along Interstate 10 and the newly completed Texas Heritage Parkway in Katy.

    Editor's note: The top real estate stories of 2025 were heavy on buzzy suburbs. Fulshear earned special recognition for its jaw-dropping population growth over the last five and 10 years, while Sugar Land entered the spotlight for its livability and its surprisingly high rental rates. A Houston billionaire was revealed to be one of the top 100 landowners in the country, and a local restaurant duo put their illustrious farm on the market. Read on for the top 10 real estate stories of 2025.

    1. Totally sweet Houston suburb triumphs as No. 3 best place to live in U.S. Relocation marketing platform Livability.com named Sugar Land the third-best place to live in America thanks to its appealing size and affordability. The list was restricted to small and mid-size cities with populations between 75,000-500,000 residents.

    2. Surprise Houston neighbor was No. 1 fastest-growing U.S. city in the last decade. Fulshear's population growth surged over 1,000 percent from 2014-2023, the report found, and the U.S Census estimates the city now boasts a population of more than 42,600 residents. More on Fulshear's booming population later.

    3. Houston oil-and-gas billionaire ranks among America's top 100 landowners. The Land Report revealed that approximately one-quarter of the country's mega-owners of private land have ties to Texas.

    4. 2 Houston suburbs rank among fastest-growing affordable cities in U.S. SmartAsset analyzed 50 U.S. cities to find the most affordable places with large population growth. League City and Pearland ranked No. 7 and No. 11, respectively.

    5. Cozy Houston neighborhood ranked No. 1 best place to live in Texas. Master-planned community Cinco Ranch was given an"A-plus" rating for its family-friendliness, public schools, diversity, and other factors. The area is able to maintain a close-knit community while having a sprawling population of more than 19,000 residents.

    6. Houston developer breaks ground on $400 million, 165 acre Katy project. Houston-based commercial real estate firm NewQuest commenced work on a $400 million, 165-acre, mixed-use shopping center in Waller County at the end of January. The project, called The Texas Heritage Marketplace, will include 750,000 square feet of retail and restaurants, along with 550 apartments in two communities.

    7. This wealthy Houston neighbor is the fastest-growing suburb in America. In a narrowed-down analysis of the top American suburbs that have had the highest population increases from 2018-2023, Fulshear once again came out on top.

    8. 2 Houston-area ZIP codes top 2024 list of hottest U.S. housing markets. Real estate marketplace Opendoor crowned Katy's 77493 ZIP code as the No. 1 hottest U.S. housing market in 2024, while Cypress' 77433 ZIP secured the No. 2 spot. Affordability was cited as the primary factor that drew newcomers to these suburbs.

    9. Houston restaurateurs' 353-acre farm hits the market for $29 million. The sprawling Goodthyme Ranch, owned by Goodnight Hospitality partners Bailey and Pete McCarthy, went on the market in early September. The farm is situated about an hour from downtown Houston in Bellville, and offers a 5,220-square-foot, five-bedroom main house and a 4,560-square-foot, five-bedroom guest house, as well as extensive agricultural and recreational amenities.

    10. This Houston suburb had the highest apartment rent prices in June. Zumper's monthly rental report found Sugar Land apartment prices were more expensive than any other Houston-area city over the summer. Despite having the most expensive rent in the metro in June, the asking rent for a single-bedroom apartment in Sugar Land was technically lower than it was in June 2024.

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