Real Estate Round-up

The burrito wars heat up and $5 for a gallon of gas looms: Houston real estate warnings

Homes and apartments that are close to major jobs center would be under even more demand under this gas scenario.

Incoming missile fire. Take cover. Watch out for shrapnel. Is it a weapon of mass destruction?

Nope. It’s just a super grande burrito with a double load of guacamole.

This is what Matt Keener warns us of as he talks about burrito restaurant competition in Houston.

“The burrito wars are underway,” says Keener, a shopping center broker with the CB Richard Ellis commercial real estate firm.

A lot of burrito outlets are opening new outlets to get a share of Houston’s burrito market, Keener said. Chipotle, which is one of the strongest stocks in the New York Stock Exchange, is the heavy hitter. Chipotle is being challenged by several including Freebird’s, Mission Burritos and a newcomer, Bullritos, which is a spinoff from the Gringo’s Mexican Kitchen organization.

The trend to eat cheaper has made a difference in the recent tough economy, Keener says. Many folks are cutting corners, trying to be frugal with their dining dollars.

“People are dining at Maggiano’s instead of Tony’s,” Keener says.

In the shopping center business, the frugal approach extends to the stores themselves. When they do open new stores, retailers are downsizing. Retailers, such as the big office supply chains, are now opening 10,000-square-foot stores instead of the 30,000-square-foot footprint that had been common for years. Shelves will be stocked with only the very best revenue generating inventory and obscure items may be hard to find.

The shopping center developers haven’t been building or starting many new projects during the recession and they are going to be extremely cautious for awhile.

“These guys have been down in the bomb shelter,” Keener says.

Over the next five years, only three million square feet of new retail space will be built in Houston. In the early 2000s, developers were building more shopping centers than that every single year.

Keener believes it will be 2012 before the local shopping center market regains its footing and it could take until 2015 until the market is in full health.

Saving Mortgage Money

Homeowners need to pursue a refinancing of their home mortgage soon because the low rates won’t last forever, says Ted C. Jones, chief economist for Houston-based Stewart Title Guaranty Co.

Mortgage rates are at their lowest point since 1951. The Freddie Mac organization reported the national 30-year, fixed-rate home loan hit an average of 4.19 percent last week.

Within six months, the average mortgage will be above five percent, Jones predicts. Around the nation, there has been a surge in refinancing in October.

Jones, a speaker last week at the Houston Association Realtors’ Expo, also believes gasoline prices will rise dramatically over the next three or four years. Get ready to pay $5 per gallon.

What will $5 a gallon gas do the local housing market? Home buyers will want to be able to do a quick commute. Houses near the major employment centers, such as downtown and the medical center, will be in high demand, Jones says.

Apartment Living

Apartment rents are rising in Houston.

The average apartment unit in Houston went for $765.42 per month in August, according to O’Connor & Associates, a Houston firm that tracks the market.

That represented a $10.45 per month increase over the last year.

If you look only at Houston best apartment projects — ones in great location or newer projects that get the highest rental rates — rents were up there also. Rents in the so-called “Class A” units averaged $1,114 per month, O’Connor reports.

The apartment market has been rising partly because buying a home has become more difficult. Mortgage companies are rejecting more applicants, forcing people to rent instead of buying.

Ralph Bivins, former president of the National Association of Real Estate Editors, is editor-in-chief of RealtyNewsReport.com.

The burrito wars are only beginning.

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The burrito wars are only beginning.

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THE AMERICAN DREAM

How long it takes to save for a home down payment in Houston

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Houstonians don't have to save long to afford a down payment.

Saving for a down payment remains one of the biggest barriers to homeownership nationwide, but a new report from Realtor.com shows San Antonio area buyers face a far shorter wait than most Americans.

According to the real estate site’s 2025 analysis, the typical U.S. household needs seven years to save for a standard down payment, a notable improvement from the 12-year peak in 2022. Still, the timeline remains roughly double the pre-pandemic norm, reflecting higher home prices, larger down payments, and lower household savings rates.

Houston, however, stood out as one of the most accessible major metros in the nation. The Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands metro boasted one of the shortest time sto save for a down payment among the nation’s 50 largest markets, with households needing just 3.5 years to reach a typical down payment, according to the study.

The report found that Houston’s median down payment from January through November was $14,927. A median household income of $83,452 was estimated to produce an annual savings of $4,228. Notably, San Antonio, the only other Texas city included in the report, had the shortest time to save for a down payment at just 1.3 years.

Nationally, the time needed to save has shortened as home price growth cooled and affordability modestly improved. Still, saving for a down payment takes significantly longer than it did before the pandemic.

“Higher home prices and intensified competition have pushed typical down payments higher, at the same time that inflation and rising household expenses have reduced savings rates,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, in a release. “Although conditions have improved since 2022, today’s timeline shows that saving for a home takes meaningfully longer than it did before the pandemic, especially in high-cost markets.”

Lower savings rates have played a key role. The U.S. personal savings rate has averaged 5.1 percent of income so far in 2025, down from the pre-pandemic norm of 6.5 percent, limiting how quickly households can build funds for upfront housing costs. Meanwhile, the typical down payment has more than doubled over the past six years — rising from about $13,900 in the third quarter of 2019 to $30,400 in the third quarter of 2025.

In high-cost coastal metros, the impact is far more severe. Saving for a down payment can take 20 to more than 35 years in California cities like San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, and San Diego, effectively sidelining many first-time and moderate-income buyers.

“In high-cost markets, the typical down payment alone exceeds a full year of household income,” said Hannah Jones, Realtor.com senior economic research analyst. “That reality makes homeownership feel unattainable for many buyers, particularly younger households trying to enter the market for the first time.”

Despite those challenges, the report notes that roughly three-quarters of Americans still consider homeownership part of the American dream. Realtor.com says easing rents could help first-time buyers save more, while repeat buyers may use accumulated savings to reduce loan balances and manage higher monthly payments.

“Saving consistently, even in small amounts, is a meaningful first step toward homeownership,” Jones said. “In today’s market, building that financial cushion can make a real difference when buyers are ready to act.”

home market economy down payments home ownership real estate