Fantasy Football Truths
Brandon Lloyd can't last, but LeSean McCoy is a better Westbrook & Brees willstill go MVP
Brandon Lloyd has been a superstar early in the season ... but it won't last.
Drew Brees is bound to break out.
Maurice Jones-Drew's inability to get into the end zone is trouble.
It seems inevitable that the first month or so of each NFL season produces a few teams that seem to be confounding all preseason prognostications, for better or worse, and this year is no different. For example, anyone who foresaw Tampa Bay and Kansas City as being among the league leaders should send their resume into Psychic Friends Network posthaste.
By the same token, not many people thought that the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys would be playing for the right to improve to 2-3.
Well, fantasy football players can understand this conundrum as well as anyone, because each year we walk into drafts armed with lists filled with sure-thing point producers on the top and no-chance benchwarmers on the bottom, only to find things going completely topsy-turvy a few weeks later. Here is a list of one unfortunate underachiever and one pleasant surprise at each of the three main skill positions, along with my prognosis for whether these unexpected performances will continue.
QUARTERBACK
Underachiever:Drew Brees — In one league, I took Brees with the seventh pick in the draft, breaking my own rule to always take Peyton Manning if you’re going to take a quarterback early. Manning is a sure thing, and Brees, for all his recent success, has been anything but this year, struggling with untimely interceptions.
The good news is that Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush should be back to add some much-needed playmaking in the backfield. That should open things back up in the red zone, and the mediocre start by the team makes it more likely they’ll need to play hard down the stretch, meaning that Brees should be rolling come playoff time.
Pleasant Surprise: Kyle Orton — Orton was thought of as a low-end fantasy backup going into the season, but Denver has foregone any semblance of a running game in favor of a wide-open attack, and Orton is thriving in it. That kind of aerial display usually cools along with the weather, so if I was riding Orton right now, I’d make sure that I have another viable option to plug in somewhere down the road.
RUNNING BACK
Underachiever: Maurice Jones-Drew — He hasn’t been a disaster, but the inability to find the end zone has been troubling for a guy who has made that his trademark in the past. Jones-Drew was nicked coming into the season, and now he has a wrist injury that knocked him out of last Sunday's win over Buffalo. If I had MJD as my lead running back, I’d wait for him to have a good game and then unload him while his value was at its peak.
Pleasant Surprise:LeSean McCoy — The artist sometimes known as Shady went way behind busts like Knowshon Moreno and Jonathan Stewart in many drafts, but he has been one of the most consistent fantasy producers to this point. It doesn’t seem to matter who the quarterback is or if he gets banged up. McCoy just keeps rolling.
Andy Reid has been known to forget about the running game at times, but it says here that McCoy might be just as good as prime-era Brian Westbrook in the Eagles offense.
WIDE RECEIVER
Underachiever: Larry Fitzgerald — I do see a little light here. Yes, the absence of Kurt Warner was underestimated by most of us in determining Fitz’s value, but there are some positive signs coming. First of all, although Max Hall is largely unproven, things can’t be any worse than when Derek Anderson was airballing Fitzgerald with regularity.
In addition, getting Steve Breaston back in the lineup should spread out the defensive pressure. This isn’t going to be a vintage year for Larry, but he’ll have a bunch of big games late.
Pleasant Surprise:Brandon Lloyd — In a season full of the unlikeliest of occurrences, Lloyd’s emergence as one of the leading receivers in the league may top them all. This is a guy who always seemed to light it up in the preseason before finding his way into the doghouse when the season started. Now he’s catching everything thrown his way.
Keep in mind though that the Denver scheme calls for the ball to be spread around, which means Lloyd’s catches may ebb and flow a bit, and rookie Demaryius Thomas, if he can get healthy, might surpass all of the Broncos receivers. If you were wise enough to either draft or pick Lloyd up, don’t let sentiment weigh you down. Sell high.
