People sometimes ask if I ever run out of things to write about this time of year. Summer’s over, and the holiday season is on the horizon.

The answer is, not as long as the Houston Mayor’s Office of Special Events keeps pumping out nutty crowd estimates for the downtown Thanksgiving Day Parade.

Right on cue, they’re at it again. Last week, Houston’s answer to Dunder Mifflin’s Party Planning Committee put out a press release claiming:

“The Houston tradition is expected to bring 250,000 people to the event this year (2023). The parade route will begin on Smith Street at Lamar traveling 20 blocks.”

Jive turkey estimates

That’s another Houston tradition, exaggerating crowd sizes. Everything’s bigger in Texas, and if it’s not, we’ll just say it is.

I know there’s been a lot of turnover in Houston media lately but still I was surprised by how many established, reputable news outlets bought the city’s crazy parade hype.

In 2017, an estimated 750,000 fans turned out downtown to salute the Astros for winning their first World Series, as we reported. It was the largest parade crowd ever in Houston. It was a mob scene for sure.

Last year, Houston celebrated another Astros title and the parade crowd was estimated at 1 million. (Read our recap and see all our photos here.) Okay, that I believe.

Can't argue the 1-million-fan attendance at last year's World Series parade. Photo by Marco Torres/@MarcoFromHouston

People were packed like sardines and hanging out windows, waving from rooftops and parking garages. Oh, fun fact about sardines: there is no one specific species of fish called a sardine. Many different types of small fish qualify as sardines. One thing they all have in common – woo boy, do they stink to high heaven.

(Editor’s note: Clearly, Ken knows a lot more about sardines than, say, birds—but that didn’t stop him from emceeing a bird-focused gala. When are you hosting the Sardine Soiree, Ken?)

So, 1 million people at the World Series parade. The next day, the estimate grew to “more than 1 million.” Then MLB.com said “2 million.” And baseball reporter Ben Verlander, yes, the brother of Justin, bellowed “more than 2 million.”

I’ll buy 1 million. Let’s leave it there.

A quarter of a million fans...give or take 100,000 or so

Back to the Thanksgiving Day parade. Years ago, I received a city of Houston press release claiming that 250,000 attended the Turkey Day march. My eyes popped out like they were attached to springs like in a Looney Tunes cartoon. I contacted a city official and said no way could 250,000 people fit on the sidewalks of 20 downtown blocks, not even if you stacked them like IHOP pancakes on all-you-can-eat Sundays. Personal note: I am not happy that IHOP discontinued my favorite Cream of Wheat flapjacks.

I asked a city official, “Where’d you get that 250,000 number?”

The official said, “I don’t know. We’ve just always said 250,000.”

You might want to stop saying that. But I get it. There’s a lot of turnover at City Hall, too. I’m guessing there may be some turnover in Sheila Jackson Lee’s office, too.

The next year the city changed its wording and said there would be “several hundred thousand people” attending the parade. You’re not making things better. I understand there is incentive for the city to blow up the parade’s attendance. The bigger the crowd estimate, the more that organizers and broadcast partners can charge sponsors.

Attendance is just a number ... that you make up, apparently

Eventually, the city lowered its crowd estimate for the Thanksgiving Day Parade, saying “100,000” and later just “thousands.” Getting better all the time, can’t get no worse (Beatles).

They’re back to saying 250,000 this year. All my hard-hitting investigative journalism down the drain.

I’ve watched the parade on TV, I’ve stood on a downtown sidewalk, and I’ve ridden aboard a float in the parade. There ain’t no “250,000 people.” No “several hundred thousand people.” No “100,000 people.” Heck, TV doesn’t show it, but a few of the blocks at the end of the parade route are virtually empty of spectators.”

A few years ago, I contacted a professional crowd estimator who had worked for the government. There are several methods of estimating the size of a crowd. Turnstiles are the best way. Aerial photos help. A good rule of thumb is assigning one person per 2-1/2 square feet.

I asked the estimator to give me his best guess: how many people really are downtown for the Thanksgiving Day Parade?

He said, between 12,000 and 20,000.

Yeah, the city should have stuck with “thousands.”