jive turkey estimates

Ken Hoffman suspects fowl play in Houston's Thanksgiving Day Parade crowd estimates

How many people do you see — 12,000 or 250,000?

Photo courtesy of Downtown District

People sometimes ask if I ever run out of things to write about this time of year. Summer’s over, and the holiday season is on the horizon.

The answer is, not as long as the Houston Mayor’s Office of Special Events keeps pumping out nutty crowd estimates for the downtown Thanksgiving Day Parade.

Right on cue, they’re at it again. Last week, Houston’s answer to Dunder Mifflin’s Party Planning Committee put out a press release claiming:

“The Houston tradition is expected to bring 250,000 people to the event this year (2023). The parade route will begin on Smith Street at Lamar traveling 20 blocks.”

Jive turkey estimates

That’s another Houston tradition, exaggerating crowd sizes. Everything’s bigger in Texas, and if it’s not, we’ll just say it is.

I know there’s been a lot of turnover in Houston media lately but still I was surprised by how many established, reputable news outlets bought the city’s crazy parade hype.

In 2017, an estimated 750,000 fans turned out downtown to salute the Astros for winning their first World Series, as we reported. It was the largest parade crowd ever in Houston. It was a mob scene for sure.

Last year, Houston celebrated another Astros title and the parade crowd was estimated at 1 million. (Read our recap and see all our photos here.) Okay, that I believe.

Houston Astros World Series downtown parade 2022 Can't argue the 1-million-fan attendance at last year's World Series parade. Photo by Marco Torres/@MarcoFromHouston

People were packed like sardines and hanging out windows, waving from rooftops and parking garages. Oh, fun fact about sardines: there is no one specific species of fish called a sardine. Many different types of small fish qualify as sardines. One thing they all have in common – woo boy, do they stink to high heaven.

(Editor’s note: Clearly, Ken knows a lot more about sardines than, say, birds—but that didn’t stop him from emceeing a bird-focused gala. When are you hosting the Sardine Soiree, Ken?)

So, 1 million people at the World Series parade. The next day, the estimate grew to “more than 1 million.” Then MLB.com said “2 million.” And baseball reporter Ben Verlander, yes, the brother of Justin, bellowed “more than 2 million.”

I’ll buy 1 million. Let’s leave it there.

A quarter of a million fans...give or take 100,000 or so

Back to the Thanksgiving Day parade. Years ago, I received a city of Houston press release claiming that 250,000 attended the Turkey Day march. My eyes popped out like they were attached to springs like in a Looney Tunes cartoon. I contacted a city official and said no way could 250,000 people fit on the sidewalks of 20 downtown blocks, not even if you stacked them like IHOP pancakes on all-you-can-eat Sundays. Personal note: I am not happy that IHOP discontinued my favorite Cream of Wheat flapjacks.

I asked a city official, “Where’d you get that 250,000 number?”

The official said, “I don’t know. We’ve just always said 250,000.”

You might want to stop saying that. But I get it. There’s a lot of turnover at City Hall, too. I’m guessing there may be some turnover in Sheila Jackson Lee’s office, too.

The next year the city changed its wording and said there would be “several hundred thousand people” attending the parade. You’re not making things better. I understand there is incentive for the city to blow up the parade’s attendance. The bigger the crowd estimate, the more that organizers and broadcast partners can charge sponsors.

Attendance is just a number ... that you make up, apparently

Eventually, the city lowered its crowd estimate for the Thanksgiving Day Parade, saying “100,000” and later just “thousands.” Getting better all the time, can’t get no worse (Beatles).

They’re back to saying 250,000 this year. All my hard-hitting investigative journalism down the drain.

I’ve watched the parade on TV, I’ve stood on a downtown sidewalk, and I’ve ridden aboard a float in the parade. There ain’t no “250,000 people.” No “several hundred thousand people.” No “100,000 people.” Heck, TV doesn’t show it, but a few of the blocks at the end of the parade route are virtually empty of spectators.”

A few years ago, I contacted a professional crowd estimator who had worked for the government. There are several methods of estimating the size of a crowd. Turnstiles are the best way. Aerial photos help. A good rule of thumb is assigning one person per 2-1/2 square feet.

I asked the estimator to give me his best guess: how many people really are downtown for the Thanksgiving Day Parade?

He said, between 12,000 and 20,000.

Yeah, the city should have stuck with “thousands.”

Astrodome's new vision

New proposal to save the Astrodome calls for shops, restaurants, and more

Rendering courtesy of Gensler

A new plan for renovating the Astrodome has emerged.

The Houston Astrodome is both the city’s crown jewel and a rotting albatross depending on which direction you view it from. To address the ongoing problem of what to do with the facility, the Astrodome Conservancy has unveiled Vision: Astrodome, the latest bold plan to repurpose the dome by turning it into a small city-within-a-city with four inner buildings and walkable green spaces.

“Our 8th Wonder of the World is as Houston as it gets,” says Abbie J. Kamin, Houston City Councilmember from District C. “This historic protected landmark, filled with generations of memories and a legacy of iconic sports and music, is woven deeply into our hearts and our heritage. I am grateful that the Astrodome Conservancy has found a path forward to not only save the Dome but provide an economic asset Houstonians can enjoy year-round.”

Here's the vision. There will be a central event space on the dome floor. Four building will surround it, offering restaurants, retail shopping, and offices. The plan should result in 450,000 square feet of revenue generating space, all within the confines of the dome itself.

In addition, a connecting boulevard will move visitors throughout the area. This plan is based on New York City’s Highline, a raised walkway built on an old viaduct that opened in 2009 and has become a template for repurposed city architecture across the nation. Not only will the dome boulevard connect the various structures inside the dome, but also lead to the other buildings in NRG Park.

Built in 1965, the Astrodome is one of the most iconic sports stadiums still standing in the world. It was the first domed stadium, ushering in a new era of air-conditioned sports entertainment that earned it the nickname 8^th Wonder of the World. Muhammad Ali fought in the dome, it hosted Wrestlemania, the famous “Battle of the Sexes” tennis match took place there, and it was of course the longtime home of the Houston Oilers, Houston Astros, and the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo.

When it closed in 2008 (and failed to meet fire code the next year), no one quite knew what to do with it. Ken Hoffman, writing in 2019, called it “puny and old, an embarrassing, dingy public eyesore” next to the shiny new NRG Stadium. In 2013, the city held a referendum on spending $217 million to renovate the dome, which failed and seemed to doom the dome to the wrecking ball.

Harris County Judge Ed Emmett started a campaign to save the dome, leading to a long and protracted discussion on what was best for the city. On the one hand, the Astrodome is a fully paid-for asset of Harris County and an iconic landmark to boot. On the other hand, no one could agree on what to do or how to pay for it. The dome waited.

In 2016, the Astrodome Conservancy was formed as a private nonprofit dedicated to revitalizing the dome. To date, they have raised $3 million toward the project, which is still a drop in the bucket when it comes to remodeling the space. Two years later, Harris County Commissioners court approved $105 million to raise the floor and turn the dome back into an event space. Progress was again halted under Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, who questioned whether renovating the dome was a wise use of the county’s money. The county currently spends $150,000 to $400,000 to maintain the empty dome.

So, what will Vision: Astrodome cost and where will the conservancy get it? The answer to the first question is currently: don’t know. The answer to the second question is: don’t know, but . . .

Vision Astrodome is meant to be a “conversation starter” between the major stakeholders in NRG Park according to official press documents. That likely means the conservancy is hoping to leverage economic interest and city pride to raise the money from the Houston Texans and the rodeo. Both have a contract with the county that gives them priority at NRG Park until 2032 and are unlikely to approve anything that threatens the parking situation in the complex.

The rest will likely come from Harris County itself, paid for through taxes and hotel fees. Houston refused to foot the bill in 2013, but nostalgia may have turned the hearts of the populace since then, especially if Houston can get a first-class facility out of the deal. Until then, the dome sits as it has for 15 years, watching the city pass it by.

Rendering courtesy of Gensler

A new plan for renovating the Astrodome has emerged.

jive turkey estimates

Ken Hoffman suspects fowl play in Houston's Thanksgiving Day Parade crowd estimates

Astrodome's new vision

New proposal to save the Astrodome calls for shops, restaurants, and more

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