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    welcome, newstonians

    Houston could be 2nd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

    Amber Heckler
    Jun 27, 2023 | 9:32 am
    Houston skyline at night
    Everyone wants to live here.
    Photo by Kevin Hernandez on Unsplash

    Start spreading the news: Houston will eclipse New York City as the 2nd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

    An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Houston's population could swell to 31.38 million people in the next 77 years.

    Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

    Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

    "The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

    The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land is currently the No. 5 biggest metro in the country with a population of more than 7.2 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

    Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the second highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (124,281 residents), following Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (170,396 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

    There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

    "The bigger threat may be more destructive hurricanes from off the Gulf of Mexico," the report's author says. "Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and major storms like that could become more common. A historic flood also nailed the city in 2019. Planning for a future of these climate-induced threats will be critical for Houston."

    The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Houston, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

    "According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

    According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

    • No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
    • No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
    • No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
    • No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
    • No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
    • No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
    • No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
    • No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
    • No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
    • No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
    These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.
    The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.
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    This Week's Hot Headlines

    Houston billionaire ranks among top U.S. landowners and more popular stories

    CultureMap Staff
    Jun 14, 2025 | 11:01 am
    HMNS Great Outdoors Gala 2022 Russell and Glenda Gordy and Red FJ Cruiser
    Photo by Jenny Antill
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    Editor's note: It's time to look back at the top Houston news of the week, including a look at one of America's top landowners. Plus, the sad closure of a pioneering steakhouse and a popular pizzeria makes plans for Houston. Get the details on our most popular stories below, then head here to plan your weekend.

    1. Houston oil-and-gas billionaire ranks among America's top 100 landowners. About one-fourth of the country’s mega-owners of private land have ties to Texas, either living here, owning land here, or both. The highest-ranked Houston-based landowner is oil-and-gas billionaire Russell Gordy.

    2. Houston's pioneering South American steakhouse will soon shutter in River Oaks. Sad news for inner loopers who are fans of plantain chips, wood-grilled steaks, and Houston’s best tres leches. The River Oaks location of South American steakhouse Churrascos will close Monday, June 16.

    3. Texas Monthly's BBQ Snob dishes on the magazine's new top 50 list. On this episode of “What’s Eric Eating,” Texas Monthly barbecue editor Daniel Vaughn joins CultureMap editor Eric Sandler to discuss the magazine’s new list of the 50 best barbecue joints in Texas.

    4. 'Famous' Bronx-based pizza chain fires up 3 Houston locations. A New York-based pizza chain has big plans for Houston. Called Singas Famous Pizza, the restaurant will soon open three locations in the area.

    Singas PizzaSingas Pizza is coming to Houston.Photo courtesy of Singas

    5. Texas slides down the list of best U.S. state economies for 2025. Texas' robust economy may be showing some cracks. Texas now ranks as the state with the eighth best economy, four spots lower than one year ago, according to a new report.

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