Rice University's Shell Center for Sustainability recently published a sustainability study for Galveston Island, and initial reaction wasn't so positive. In fact, if you heard the report's results second-hand, it sounded like a death knell for island residents.

The report aimed to lay out plausible frameworks for the future of the precariously situated — but historically and geographically significant — island. Media outlets picked up on one word which, taken out of context, evokes an ominous image.

One of the researchers' scenarios for future development "permanently abandons the west end of the island" in the case of a catastrophic hurricane or in the eventual (and inevitable) shoreline retreat and sea-level rise.

"The book is not trying to paint a picture of doom," Dr. John Anderson, co-author of the study, tells CultureMap. "That's not what we spent five years trying to do."

An Atlas

Anderson, Christopher Hight, Michael Robinson and Davin Wallace worked with Rice University students to produce the first long-term, comprehensive study of Galveston. They looked at the science behind the island's landscape to predict future changes and suggested design and development solutions for mitigating likely damage.

The result is Atlas of Sustainable Strategies for Galveston Island, a 198-page tome available in paperback or free to download in PDF format. It's extensive, approachable and well-designed, and it could serve as a blueprint for Galveston's long-term urban planning.

Science and economy back up the study's underlying argument: The narrow western end of the island is extremely vulnerable. Galveston's west end has recently seen a boom of new construction, despite the rapidly deteriorating shoreline. Erosion is occurring at an unprecedented rate of three to six feet per year on the coastal shore, sometimes faster on the bay side, and can recede as much as 50 feet during a single hurricane.

Even if there were sufficient beach-quality sand nearby to keep up with the rate of erosion, the funds aren't there to support constant replenishment.

In light of the problem, the researchers offered several scenarios for dealing with the inevitable. One was to institute stricter setback rules to serve as an erosion buffer. Another was to adopt a new development plan based on the current geohazard zone, which would limit future construction to a thin strip of land on Galveston's west end, rendering 17 square miles of the region un-developable.

The third scenario was that — in the event of extreme weather — it would be more prudent to let the west end return to nature, rather than to divert energy and resources to resuscitate it. Displaced inhabitants could be redistributed on the eastern end of the island.

Anderson, who owns a vacation home in Jamaica Beach, says that in any case, further development on the west end is irresponsible and unsustainable.

By contrast, some beaches on the east end are actually seeing a growth of approximately four feet per year. Undeveloped tracts of land there also offer room for growth, specifically an area called the East End Flats which has been built up with channel-dredging waste. This spot is approximately 21 feet above sea level, close to the city center, protected by the seawall and in the process of changing hands from the Corps of Engineers to the City of Galveston (the title is slated for transfer by 2046).

Anderson foresees that Galveston will prosper economically and socioeconomically from rising gas prices and the increased population growth in Houston. The island is within easy traveling distance from the city and has a two-fold draw of eco-tourism and historical relevance.

If a high-speed rail line were laid from Houston and Galveston's public transit and walkability are improved, Galveston could enjoy a flourishing tourist industry in future decades.

The City's plan

The City of Galveston adopted a 2011 Comprehensive Plan last month which will serve as a guide for long-term development in the city. Progress Galveston, a team made up of the City's Planning and Community Development department as well as professional planners, looks at elements of urban life including housing, historic preservation, infrastructure and transportation.

A quick review of the Comprehensive Plan reveals that the City has the same general idea as Rice for future development. Greater transportation options (including rail), restoration of beaches and dunes and preservation of wetlands are all priorities. The city also intends to focus on developing the East End Flats and repopulating downtown residential areas by reducing "blight" and incentivizing home ownership.

The City will not "abandon," but plans to promote planned developments, neighborhood centers and village centers on the west side of the island, and at the same time "ensure protection of sensitive natural resources, conserve open space and scenic resources, and minimize loss to public facilities and private property as a result of major storm events."

It seems that Progress Galveston does not recognize the same peril that Rice researchers foresee on the west end when it comes to new development, but it may not be too late to acknowledge the findings.

"The City was not part of the study, so we did not have any advance knowledge of the recommendations before it was released," says Lori Field Schwarz, assistant director of planning and special projects for the City of Galveston, via email. "We look forward to reading the report and determining the feasibility of incorporating the recommendations into our future planning work."