The Houston real estate market has been experiencing a sloppy bottom.

For every positive signal that gets reported in the business section of the local paper, there are a couple of other negative developments. Good stats one month; bad stats the next. Real estate in one part of Houston may be great, while a few miles away the market will stink.

Houston’s apartment market is strong, while single-family home sales are lackluster. Local home sales were up in January, down sharply in April.

On the commercial side, the office building market is showing some pockets of surprising strength. But you still see plenty of unhealthy vacant strip centers in the suburbs.

But whether it’s a boom or a bust, nothing lasts forever. Houston realty has been down for a while. Can a solid recovery be far away? The underlying fundamentals (read: job growth) point to brighter days ahead.

“Employment growth drives both the residential and commercial markets and last year’s growth of 50,000 jobs coupled with this year's projection in the same range, bode well for Houston's real estate market," says Carlos Bujosa, chairman of the Houston Association of Realtors.

Mid-year residential realty: Rents up; home sales down

Houston’s residential market is mixed.

A lot of people are electing to rent, rather than buy. Apartment occupancy rates are high and rents have been rising. Rentals of single-family homes, townhouses and condos were up 27 percent in April, compared to a year earlier, according to the Houston Association of Realtors.

People who want to buy are facing tougher scrutiny from mortgage companies and a lot of would-be buyers can’t meet up to the stringent standards.

Residential sales were down 12 percent in April, compared to April of 2010, the HAR reported. But home sales in 2011 are still better than the brutal 2009 – a nightmare year for Realtors.

Certain houses, if priced right, can attract a slew of buyers in today’s market.

“This year, we’ve had many properties with multiple offers, which was unheard of last year,” says Tim Surratt of Greenwood King Properties. “Buyers are realizing that the window is closing on the opportunity that has existed since the 2008 market adjustment.”

For Houston home builders, the market is sloshing along in what the Metrostudy housing analytics firm has called a “’sloppy bottom” of mixed results and downer stats. Metrostudy is projecting about 20,000 new homes will be built in the Houston area this year, which is a far cry from the boom times when 50,000 homes were built annually.

However, there are still some hot pockets, like the Cinco Ranch community, west of Houston.

“At Cinco Ranch, we just had the best month since the community opened 20 years ago,” says Cinco Ranch developer Ted Nelson, president of Newland Communities central region. Selling 116 new homes in 30 days is an impressive feat in this economy. Cinco Ranch is an appealing location for people employed in the massive “Energy Corridor” collection of oil and gas companies on the Katy Freeway.

Nelson says Houston — and most of Texas — is now centered on the radar screens of national home builders looking to expand into new cities. M/I Homes, a major national builder, just entered the Houston market. Texas is attracting new builders because of the Lone Star State’s great track record in job creation, Nelson says.

There’s nothing a builder likes better than new job growth. And Houston has it.

Mid-year commercial realty: A turn around in store?

It’s too soon to say the recovery is completed. But so far this year, there’s’ plenty of evidence that Houston commercial real estate market has turned around.

“Activity for all commercial product types has increased since last year,”” says Bujosa, chairman of HAR.

Land is even selling again. Land sales point to future construction projects and show that investors are optimistic. Tracts for apartment developments, retail centers and industrial facilities are all selling again, following a deadly doldrums over the last two years.

The city’s overall office vacancy stands at 13.6 percent, unchanged from a year ago, according to Commercial Gateway. Downtown buildings have been selling at high prices and there’s even been talk of a new tower being started by Hines.

Downtown stands to take a few more hard knocks, such as the shrinkage that will occur as the Continental Airlines and United merger takes hold. But, for the most part, the office market appears to be rebounding at surprisingly good pace.

“Houston is on the verge of a sooner-than-expected recovery,” says Charles Gordon, executive vice president of CB Richard Ellis.

Houston’s warehouse and industrial real estate market is also showing some solid gains. The vacancy rate at the end of the first quarter was 8.5 percent, down from 9.4 percent a year earlier, reports Commercial Gateway. The market is exceptionally tight for heavy manufacturing buildings.

Houston’s industrial realty market has the lowest vacancy rate of any city in the nation, says Tom Lynch, senior vice president of industrial services for CB Richard Ellis. Developers will be constructing new industrial buildings to meet the increased demand, which is flowing from the energy industry.

“National economic data sources demonstrate that Houston remains one of the strongest industrial markets in the United States,” says Walker Barnett, principal at Colliers International.

So Houston has the best market in the nation for industrial real estate and the apartment business is good, too. The city’s office and housing markets have at least stabilized. Perhaps by the end of the year we’ll know the timetable for a full recovery.

Ralph Bivins, former president of the National Association of Real Estate Editors, is founding editor of RealtyNewsReport.com