There is an entire Internet subculture devoted to predicting the Oscars. Like sporting events, it has its own Vegas odds-makers, and several blogs are devoted to handicapping the ceremony. Hard and fast rules don't work, and even renowned statistician Nate Silver wasn't as good at predicting who got little gold men as he was at predicting how the 2012 election would unfold.
No matter. If you followed my advice last year, you went with a tried-and-true regimen of pre-Oscar indicators, gut instinct and a resolution to not take it so seriously. You also got 18 out of 24 categories correct, which is more than enough to win most office Oscar pools.
This year should be no different if you follow my foolproof guide to the Oscars. These are the winners wrought by the awards season narrative, and I'll be absolutely sure of each one — until a few of them are wrong on Sunday.
Argo has made a late-season push to the front of the pack for Best Picture. Hollywood loves itself, so a movie about making movies (sort of) could swoop in and prevent the solid but straightforward Lincoln from Mitt-Romney-ing its way to victory.
Argo should pick up Editing and Adapted Screenplay awards as well, while Lincoln consoles itself with wins for performances by Daniel Day-Lewis and Tommy Lee Jones and Steven Spielberg's direction.
In the other major categories, Jennifer Lawrence wins Best Actress by a nose for Silver Linings Playbook, while Anne Hathaway wins Best Supporting Actress in a landslide (pretty much just for singing the Susan Boyle song from Les Mis, which will also win Sound Mixing for its innovative live-singing production).
In a wide-open race, Django Unchained stands poised to take Original Screenplay.
Life of Pi should take a bunch of technical awards for looking pretty. Skyfall will become only the third Bond movie to win an Oscar, taking home both Sound Effects Editing and Best Original Song for Adele's titular ballad.
Anna Karennina easily wins Best Costumes, and The Hobbit wins makeup for dusting off the hobbit feet.
That leaves Wreck-It Ralph winning Best Animated Feature, Amour (a Best Picture nominee) easily winning Best Foreign Language Film, Searching For Sugar Man taking Best Documentary and, finally, the unpredictable short films.
Getting one short film right is a good day: at least Paperman (a partially hand-drawn industry favorite) is a lock for Animated Short. I have gone with Curfew in Live Action Short (it has a cute little kid), and Mondays at Racine (it's about cancer) in Documentary Short.
Without further ado, here's my comprehensive guide to the Academy Awards. Best of luck! And if I'm way off, I promise all of your money back.
Picture: Argo Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables Original Screenplay: Django Unchained Adapted Screenplay:Argo Editing:Argo Cinematography:Life of Pi Score:Life of Pi Song: "Skyfall" by Adele from Skyfall Art Direction:Life of Pi Costumes:Anna Karennina Sound Mixing:Les Miserables Sound Effects Editing:Skyfall Makeup: The Hobbit Visual Effects: Life of Pi Foreign:Amour Animated Feature:Wreck-It Ralph Doc Feature:Searching for Sugar Man Doc Short:Mondays at Racine Animated Short: Paperman Live Short: Curfew
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In the top six categories of CultureMap's "Pick the Oscar Winners" Contest, readers agreed with Duncan except for Best Supporting Actor, where the pick was Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained. And in a surprise for Best Director, newcomer Benh Zeitlin, who directed the haunting Beastsof the Southern Wild, narrowly beat out Spielberg in our readers poll.
Life of Pi should take a slew of technical awards.
Photo courtesy of Life of Pi Flickr page
Life of Pi should take a slew of technical awards.
The Mandalorian (Pedro Pascal) and Grogu in The Mandalorian and Grogu.
At one point in the 2010s, Disney planned to release a different Star Wars movie every year, with an “Episode” film (like The Rise of Skywalker) alternating with anthology movies like Rogue One. But when 2018’s Solo underperformed, those plans changed, and the pandemic made any Star Wars movie less appealing, with Lucasfilm shifting heavily toward TV shows like The Mandalorian.
The popularity of that show in particular has led to the return of Star Wars to the theaters in the form of Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu. The film follows the bounty hunter (Pedro Pascal) and his Force-sensitive adopted child as they travel around the universe, hunting down the remaining members of the Galactic Empire (the film, like the series, is set in the years following The Return of the Jedi).
The main thrust of the film has the duo, at the behest of Colonel Ward (Sigourney Weaver) of the New Republic, trying to track down Rotta the Hutt (voiced by Jeremy Allen White), the son of the late Jabba the Hutt, who’s supposedly been kidnapped. The discovery of the ultra-buff Rotta sets them down a different path than they thought, one that puts Mando and Grogu in the crosshairs of Rotta’s twin cousins.
Directed by Jon Favreau and written by Favreau, Dave Filoni, and Noah Kloor, the film is perfectly fine if you consider it to be an extended Mandalorian episode, but at no point does it rise to the level of a great movie experience.
The film, like the show, is defined by the Mandalorian’s unflappable nature and strict code, as well as Grogu’s mischievousness and unquenchable appetite. Right from the start, the Mandalorian has a “take no prisoners” approach, laying waste to all comers in a PG-13 sort of way. Grogu is mostly along for the ride, occasionally breaking out the Force to help out, but mostly serving as the comic sidekick. Their relationship keeps the film watchable, but only just barely.
The biggest issue, one which was starting to affect the Disney+ show as well, is that the story never seems to go anywhere despite the fact that its two main characters are constantly on the move. No matter how big or ferocious the opponent they face, the overall stakes are so low as to almost be nonexistent. If Favreau and Filoni (who has a small part in the film) are trying to build toward some larger story, it doesn’t come through on screen.
The film’s action fits in well with sequences that have been put forth in previous Star Wars films, but to call them “cinematic” would be stretching things. There are all manner of monstrous creatures that the duo comes across in their adventures, but only a few of them are memorable. The most interesting sequence features a snake/dragon hybrid that Mando fights in a watery pit that is reminiscent of the trash compactor scene in the original Star Wars. Much of the rest of the film blends together in a mish-mash of uninteresting opponents.
For a live action film, there are precious few actors who actually show their faces. The Mandalorian removes his helmet exactly once, making it clear that Pascal is merely providing the voice for the character. White affects a tough voice for Rotta that may be canon, but frankly sounds ridiculous coming from the character’s body and in no way resembles White’s actual voice, which negates his casting altogether. Weaver is close to a non-factor in her small role, but Martin Scorsese is kind of fun voicing a four-armed fry cook/informant.
The cachet of Star Wars and the fun of The Mandalorian series may be enough for many to enjoy the inoffensive lark that is The Mandalorian and Grogu. But the film does not come close to reaching the heights of the best Star Wars movies, and does nothing to indicate what to expect from the valuable intellectual property going forward.
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Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu opens in theaters on May 22.