Oscar predictions

King's Speech & Social Network duke it out for the Oscars

"The Social Network"
"The King's Speech"
Natalie Portman in "The Black Swan"
Jeff Bridges in "True Grit"

Attention Oscar handicappers: As of early Tuesday morning, the preliminaries are over, and the heavy-duty prognosticating has begun for the 83rd annual Academy Awards.

As many predicted, the main event is shaping up as a down-to-the wire race between The King’s Speech (leader of the pack with 12 nominations overall) and The Social Network (eight nominations).

After nabbing top honors from several film critics’ organizations (including H-Town’s very own Houston Film Critics Society) and a Golden Globe, Network – David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin’s fleet, flashy and fiercely funny drama about the founding of Facebook -- is widely viewed as the front runner for Best Picture.

But King’s Speech – the true-life story of King George IV’s determined efforts to overcome his stammer and lead England during a time of crisis – is heading into the home stretch with the cachet of being the sort of old-fashioned and uplifting period piece traditionally beloved by older Academy voters. And it doesn’t hurt at all that Harvey Weinstein – the same irrepressible impresario who masterminded the upset of Shakespeare in Love over seemingly prohibitive fave Saving Private Ryan a decade ago – is behind the Oscar campaign for this Brit production as well.

What happens if these two acclaimed nominees cancel each other out in a generation-gap steel-cage grudge match? Well, this being the second consecutive year that the Motion Picture Academy has expanded the list of Best Picture finalists to ten titles, there are eight other films that could benefit from a split vote. (Very, very nice to see the worthy indie Winter’s Bone in this Top 10.)

As I noted last year: If you doubt that a true underdog could ever triumph over more heavily hyped competitors in this category, go talk to the makers of Reds and On Golden Pond, the “sure things” that lost the gold to Chariots of Fire back in 1982.

Already, some veteran Oscar soothsayers – David Poland of Movie City News being only the most prominent – have suggested that True Grit has the right stuff to emerge as a kinda-sorta compromise winner.

To be honest, this strikes me a more than a little unlikely. In fact, if there really is an upset, I think it’s far more plausible that Christopher Nolan’s eye-popping, brain-teasing Inception would score a surprise win.

But, hey, if you would have asked me yesterday to predict the five finalists for Best Actor, I would have told you to bet the farm and all the cows and chickens living there on Robert Duvall’s being a major contender, if not the sentimental favorite, for his career-highlight performance in Get Low. As it turns out, however, he didn’t make the final cut. So go figure.

With that in mind, you may wish to apply a grain or two of salt to my early line Oscar predictions:

Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem in Biutiful
Jeff Bridges in True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network
Colin Firth in The King’s Speech
James Franco in 127 Hours

Likely Winner: Colin Firth
Possible upset: Jesse Eisenberg
Conspicuous by his absence: Robert Duvall in Get Low

Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman in Black Swan
Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine

Likely Winner: Annette Bening 
Possible upset: Natalie Portman 
Conspicuous by her absence: Julianne Moore in The Kids Are All Right

Actor in a Supporting Role 

Christian Bale in The Fighter
John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner in The Town
Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech

Likely Winner: Christian Bale 
Possible upset: Geoffrey Rush
Conspicuous by his absence: Andrew Garfield in The Social Network

Best Actress in a Supporting Role 

Amy Adams in The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech
Melisa Leo in The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit
Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom

Likely Winner: Melissa Leo
Possible upset: Hailee Steinfeld
Conspicuous by her absence: Mila Kunis in Black Swan

Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours -- Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
The Social Network -- Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
Toy Story 3 -- Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
True Grit -- Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Winter's Bone -- Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

Mortal lock: The Social Network

Original Screenplay 

Another Year -- Written by Mike Leigh
The Fighter -- Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson; Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
Inception -- Written by Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right -- Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
The King's Speech -- Screenplay by David Seidler

Likely Winner: The King’s Speech
Possible upset: The Kids Are All Right
Possible consolation prize: Inception

Director 

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, True Grit

Likely Winner: David Fincher
Possible upset: Tom Hooper (but only if there’s a King’s Speech sweep)
Conspicuous by his absence: Christopher Nolan for Inception

Best Picture

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Too close to call: The King’s Speech or The Social Network

unspecified

lizzo concert review

Lizzo makes Houston feel 'Good as Hell' at sold-out Rodeo concert

Courtesy of Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo

Lizzo entered the rodeo in a tricked out SLAB.

Much like Mayor of Trill Town Bun B’s past rodeo shows, Lizzo’s sold-out Friday night show, closing out Black Heritage Day, was a rapturous celebration of Houston pride with a live jukebox.

The best rodeo shows are when no one sits down, even if their boots make their dogs holler, and when the show ends, everyone spills out of the stadium barefoot, or the menfolk carry the heels. No other city would allow you to eat chicken fried lobster, drink award-winning wine by the bottle, watch teenagers wrestle calves for cash, see kindergartens hold on to a sheep with a death grip, and stomp your Ariats to “Still Tippin’” with 70,000 other people within the span of six hours.

Along with Go Tejano Day, Black Heritage Day (which became a part of the RodeoHouston DNA in 1993) showcases the diversity found on the concrete and the hay off Kirby Drive every year. It’s a whole day of celebration on the grounds, including field trips, art installations, traveling museum exhibits, and an unofficial HBCU reunion event. As cowpokes in cowboy hats battled various beasts before the show, the big screen highlighted roving bands of women dressed in their finest rodeo attire. The sidewalks around NRG Stadium were a Friday night fashion show. Friday was also the kickoff of spring break for most Houston-area school districts, meaning the grounds will be insanely busy over the next week.

Proud Alief Elsik High School alum and University of Houston product Lizzo was supposed to have made her triumphant hometown rodeo debut back in 2020, but Covid-19 scuttled the second half of that season, including her appearance. Just a few weeks ago, she gushed on Late Night with Seth Meyers about how important the show would be to her, mentioning seeing John Mayer and Beyoncé during her teen years in town.

At 9:15 pm, just next door to the 8th Wonder of the World the “9th Wonder of the World” — Texas Southern University’s Ocean of Soul Marching Band — made its way onto the show floor to massive applause as a hype video of Houston landmarks played on the show screens. If RodeoHouston needs a house band — founded in 1969 — this is it. In fact, it should be legally mandated that they appear every year.

Before Lizzo even appeared, the show felt like a Super Bowl halftime show, with three SLABs driving out into the dirt, with the woman herself kicking off “About Damn Time” from the back seat of a fourth SLAB, clad in a black leather studded duster, surrounded by TSU dancers. This is the kind of big-budget spectacle that the rodeo salivates for. Backed by a mostly-female band onstage, the Ocean of Soul provided a constant brassy, bassy undercurrent.

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“This is the city that raised me,” Lizzo said, taking in the 69,362 souls in her midst.

She was met with a hurricane-force wall of screams as she launched into “Cuz I Love You,” ditching her black leather duster for a white tank top.

Houston’s own gospel pop quartet The Walls Group appeared just then for the Black National Anthem, “Lift Every Voice And Sing.” Lizzo and the Walls siblings then wove “Special” into “Total Praise.” We’d all buy a Lizzo gospel album, and you know it.

Her collaboration with Cardi B “Rumors” — flaunting rodeo lyrical standards — gave way to her own rendition 4 Non Blondes’ “What’s Up,” giving Linda Perry’s grunge pop classic a torch song glow-up.

Lizzo got back into her custom SLAB for her own “Yitty On Yo Tittys” from last summer’s My Face Hurts From Smiling album, complete with a human-sized dancing Labubu. The Ocean of Soul got its own interlude while keen eyes could see Lizzo side stage, tuning up her famous flute with a familiar line.

Wait, is that? Yes, by God, that’s Houston’s national anthem.

Soon Slim Thug, Mike Jones, and Paul Wall sauntered out for “Still Tippin’” as city pride began to sweat from the stadium walls, all while the Ocean of Soul kept strutting along. The professor emeritus’ of Houston's 2000s rap explosion, you look up from your phone and realize all these Houston rap standards are all over 20 years old now. Paul is a silver fox, Slim is a real estate magnate, and even people in Japan know Jones’ personal phone number.

“At the end of the day, I just want Houston to feel good as hell,” Lizzo said, tapping directly into “Good As Hell.” Was that a pregnant lady in a cowboy hat dancing on the big screen? How much more Houston can a fetus be?

The only truly Houston things left to do tonight were to sweat through your Wranglers in the parking lot, gaze at the Astrodome, sit in standstill traffic, and join the drive-thru parade at the closest Whataburger.

Setlist

With Texas Southern University’s Ocean Of Soul

About Damn Time
Juice
2 Be Loved (Am I Ready)
Soulmate
Cuz I Love You

With The Walls Group

Lift Every Voice And Sing
Special > Total Praise
Rumors > What’s Up

Tempo > Wobble
Boys (with Ocean Of Soul)
Mo City Don (Z-Ro Cover)
Yitty On Yo Tittys
Screwed (with Ocean Of Soul)
Still Tippin’ (with Slim Thug, Mike Jones, and Paul Wall)
Truth Hurts
Good As Hell (with Ocean Of Soul)

rodeohouston concert review lizzo