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    jive turkey estimates

    Ken Hoffman suspects fowl play in Houston's Thanksgiving Day Parade crowd estimates

    Ken Hoffman
    Oct 24, 2023 | 10:55 am
    HEB Thanksgiving Day Parade in Houston

    How many people do you see — 12,000 or 250,000?

    Photo courtesy of Downtown District

    People sometimes ask if I ever run out of things to write about this time of year. Summer’s over, and the holiday season is on the horizon.

    The answer is, not as long as the Houston Mayor’s Office of Special Events keeps pumping out nutty crowd estimates for the downtown Thanksgiving Day Parade.

    Right on cue, they’re at it again. Last week, Houston’s answer to Dunder Mifflin’s Party Planning Committee put out a press release claiming:

    “The Houston tradition is expected to bring 250,000 people to the event this year (2023). The parade route will begin on Smith Street at Lamar traveling 20 blocks.”

    Jive turkey estimates

    That’s another Houston tradition, exaggerating crowd sizes. Everything’s bigger in Texas, and if it’s not, we’ll just say it is.

    I know there’s been a lot of turnover in Houston media lately but still I was surprised by how many established, reputable news outlets bought the city’s crazy parade hype.

    In 2017, an estimated 750,000 fans turned out downtown to salute the Astros for winning their first World Series, as we reported. It was the largest parade crowd ever in Houston. It was a mob scene for sure.

    Last year, Houston celebrated another Astros title and the parade crowd was estimated at 1 million. (Read our recap and see all our photos here.) Okay, that I believe.

    Houston Astros World Series downtown parade 2022Can't argue the 1-million-fan attendance at last year's World Series parade. Photo by Marco Torres/@MarcoFromHouston

    People were packed like sardines and hanging out windows, waving from rooftops and parking garages. Oh, fun fact about sardines: there is no one specific species of fish called a sardine. Many different types of small fish qualify as sardines. One thing they all have in common – woo boy, do they stink to high heaven.

    (Editor’s note: Clearly, Ken knows a lot more about sardines than, say, birds—but that didn’t stop him from emceeing a bird-focused gala. When are you hosting the Sardine Soiree, Ken?)

    So, 1 million people at the World Series parade. The next day, the estimate grew to “more than 1 million.” Then MLB.com said “2 million.” And baseball reporter Ben Verlander, yes, the brother of Justin, bellowed “more than 2 million.”

    I’ll buy 1 million. Let’s leave it there.

    A quarter of a million fans...give or take 100,000 or so

    Back to the Thanksgiving Day parade. Years ago, I received a city of Houston press release claiming that 250,000 attended the Turkey Day march. My eyes popped out like they were attached to springs like in a Looney Tunes cartoon. I contacted a city official and said no way could 250,000 people fit on the sidewalks of 20 downtown blocks, not even if you stacked them like IHOP pancakes on all-you-can-eat Sundays. Personal note: I am not happy that IHOP discontinued my favorite Cream of Wheat flapjacks.

    I asked a city official, “Where’d you get that 250,000 number?”

    The official said, “I don’t know. We’ve just always said 250,000.”

    You might want to stop saying that. But I get it. There’s a lot of turnover at City Hall, too. I’m guessing there may be some turnover in Sheila Jackson Lee’s office, too.

    The next year the city changed its wording and said there would be “several hundred thousand people” attending the parade. You’re not making things better. I understand there is incentive for the city to blow up the parade’s attendance. The bigger the crowd estimate, the more that organizers and broadcast partners can charge sponsors.

    Attendance is just a number ... that you make up, apparently

    Eventually, the city lowered its crowd estimate for the Thanksgiving Day Parade, saying “100,000” and later just “thousands.” Getting better all the time, can’t get no worse (Beatles).

    They’re back to saying 250,000 this year. All my hard-hitting investigative journalism down the drain.

    I’ve watched the parade on TV, I’ve stood on a downtown sidewalk, and I’ve ridden aboard a float in the parade. There ain’t no “250,000 people.” No “several hundred thousand people.” No “100,000 people.” Heck, TV doesn’t show it, but a few of the blocks at the end of the parade route are virtually empty of spectators.”

    A few years ago, I contacted a professional crowd estimator who had worked for the government. There are several methods of estimating the size of a crowd. Turnstiles are the best way. Aerial photos help. A good rule of thumb is assigning one person per 2-1/2 square feet.

    I asked the estimator to give me his best guess: how many people really are downtown for the Thanksgiving Day Parade?

    He said, between 12,000 and 20,000.

    Yeah, the city should have stuck with “thousands.”

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    a bright flame

    Houston's game-changing free arts academy breaks ground in the East End

    Holly Beretto
    Oct 15, 2026 | 9:00 am
    Frank Liu Jr. Academy for Music and Arts (FLAMA) exterior
    Rendering courtesy of OMA
    A rendering of the exterior of the Frank Liu Jr. Academy for Music and Arts (FLAMA)'s exterior. The new school broke ground in the East End last week.

    Houston’s newest school for arts and music broke ground last week in the city’s historic East End. The Frank Liu Jr. Academy for Music and Arts (FLAMA), a tuition-free charter school, will welcome students in pre-K through 8th grade next August.

    Members of the Liu family, the school’s founding board members, elected officials, and East End community partners gathered at Buffalo Bayou Partnership’s historic Turkey Bend development for the official groundbreaking ceremony on October 8, which kicked off with a performance by the Kinder High School for the Performing and Visual Arts’ Mariachi group.

    The new school is on a portion of the former Folgers Coffee Plant, located at 235 N. Norwood St. OMA, an international architectural firm known for its approach to urbanism, cultural projects, and adaptive reuse, is transforming the 1930s plant into a state-of-the-art educational facility.

    “We’re excited to celebrate this milestone for FLAMA and look forward to seeing the transformation of the historic Folgers plant into a new home for music and arts education,” said Jason Long, one of the firm’s partners. “Like fine-tuning an instrument, our design recalibrates the existing industrial structure into an open, connected, and expressive environment for learning. FLAMA will be a new learning environment that builds on the character of the existing building while giving it new life for the community.”

    Unfolding across three stories, the school draws inspiration from Montessori education principles, which prioritize openness, independence, and collective learning through shared “neighborhoods.”

    It all begins when students, families and guests enter through a private courtyard. The welcoming space will change the building’s original industrial facade into a brightly colored, kid-friendly spot, complete with yellow and green blocks spelling out the school’s name. The original windows will be restored to preserve the building’s historic character and upgraded to meet contemporary energy standards. Similarly, all of the school’s classrooms are located around the building’s perimeter, providing an abundance of natural light.

    Inside, FLAMA’s three stories are divided so that younger students will find their classrooms at the school’s base, and they will move upward through the school as they progress through grade levels. The ground level has a common area for younger kids that could host drum circles, movement classes or “breakout play.”

    Children in first and second grade have their own, larger open space, with an eye-catching staircase, that's inspired by the curve of a French horn. The space lends itself to everything from small gatherings to performances by the school’s early musicians.

    As students progress through grades three and higher, they’ll find FLAMA’s upper floors created to meet their growing artistic and intellectual needs. One example is the open library, a shared spot for students in third through fifth grades. It has flexible furniture that can transform the space into a place for group study and project work, as well as one that can host after-school activities. Directly above this library is a second common room for middle schoolers where students in sixth, seventh, and eighth grades can study.

    These two libraries are connected by an F-shaped floor opening that references both the F-hole of a string instrument and the forte symbol. Musicians know this curly f as a note indicating them to play a passage with strength. That could easily be a metaphor for the school itself, which will combine high-quality education with rigorous academics. This visual cue emphasizes FLAMA’s desire for music and art instruction to amplify learning across reading, writing, math, and science.

    “This will be a place where children can discover their talents, families can find opportunities close to home, and music and art can open the doors to a stronger education,” said Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia, who attended the groundbreaking. “I know how much it matters when someone brings opportunity within the reach of a child.”

    Dr. R. Scott Allen, FLAMA’s founding superintendent and former principal of Kinder HSPVA, spoke about the school’s vision to pair a rigorous, engaging academic opportunity with deep immersion in music and visual arts.

    Congressman Christian Menefee, State Senator Carol Alvarado, and Houston City Councilmember Mario Castillo also delivered remarks at the ceremony, speaking about the school’s power to not only transform Houston’s Second, Third, and Fifth Ward communities, but also bring incredible education opportunities to students. Former Mayor Annise Parker, former State Board of Education Member Staci Childs, State Representative Christina Morales, and Houston City Councilmembers Joaquin Martinez and Sallie Alcorn also attended the event.

    “In this city, known for our undeniable contributions to music and arts, the gap has never been ability or talent; it has always been opportunity, and opportunity can be built,” said Kirby Liu, who spoke at the groundbreaking, memorializing his late brother’s vision of arts education for the youngest Houstonians. “When it comes to opportunity being foreclosed on our children, we will try like hell to bust those damned doors down.”

    The Frank Liu Jr. Foundation has pledged $20 million in financial support during FLAMA’s first years of operation.

    Applications are now open for kindergarten and first-grade students for the 2027-2028 school year.

    Frank Liu Jr. Academy for Music and Arts (FLAMA) exterior

    Rendering courtesy of OMA

    A rendering of the exterior of the Frank Liu Jr. Academy for Music and Arts (FLAMA)'s exterior. The new school broke ground in the East End last week.

    flamafrank liu jr academy for music and artseast endperforming-artseducationanderson
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