Opinion
Census confounded: Why Texas will be hurt, not helped, by gaining four seats inthe House
- Gaining four seats in the House of Representatives might be the windfall forTexas you expect.
- In the quest to gain traction in this room, a lot of funny things happen.
- Like the 2003 redistricting that include some very questionable changes.
- As usual, it's about the fight between parties rather than what is right forTexas.
Republican or Democrat, the only appropriate response to the news that Texas is set to gain four seats in the House of Representatives and the electoral college is a resigned groan.
OK, sure, the groan is, at face value, a little more heartfelt for Democrats than Republicans, considering the 2010 elections showed real red state muscle.
But anyone who remembers the redistricting fight of 2003 should be concerned about a real partisan mess taking over state politics during a time when political leaders should be focusing on solving some real problems — like Texas' anticipated $25 billion budget shortfall.
It was only a decade ago that Democrats held the majority in the Texas legislature and in federal representatives, and a political standstill following the 2000 census led to the matter being given over to the Legislative Redistricting Board, which drew lines that maintained the status quo, with 17 Democratic districts to 15 Republican ones.
That is until 2003, when Tom Delay (now a convicted felon for his other electioneering acts around the same time) came up with a plan to redraw the lines to help elect more Republican Representatives from Texas, targeting in particular 10 white Democratic incumbents by splitting their left-leaning districts apart into more red ones, including splitting up Austin into districts that sprawled across the countryside — like the fajita strip that stretched practically to Mexico.
The plan met fierce opposition from the minority state Democrats, who fled to Oklahoma to avoid quorum votes for the measure.
As Senator John Cornyn was quoted in The New Yorker, "Everybody who knows Tom knows that he's a fighter and a competitor, and he saw an opportunity to help the Republicans stay in power in Washington."
It worked — five of the Democratic incumbents were out of power after the 2004 elections, and another switched his party affiliation to Republican. One can argue that the new districts mean that the Texas Congressional delegation more closely matches the political make-up of Texans — Democrats weren't afraid to use the gerrymander to their advantage back in 1990 — but even the Republican Supreme Court agreed that one new district violated the Voting Rights Act.
In theory, four more seats for Texas is a great thing. It means more personal representation for Texans, and a stronger say on national affairs. But in reality, nothing in politics is dirtier than watching the federal district sausage get made — and how little the minority party or the judiciary can do to stop it as long as the political power of minorities isn't threatened. It supercedes all other state business. It's ugly
Will the new lines drawn in 2011 be as ugly as those of 2003? It's hard to say. With a supermajority of Republicans in the Texas House, there seems to be nothing standing in the way of them drawing the lines as red as they see fit, even without a powerful ally like Delay.
But as The Atlantic points out, the gains by states like Texas, Arizona, Nevada and Florida are largely due to a growing Hispanic population. So the Republican legislature must either create more Hispanic-friendly districts — unlikely, since Latino voters went 2-to-1 for Obama in 2008 — or ignore this growth and risk challenges from a Democratic Justice Department.
Whatever happens, I foresee a prolonged fight and possibly a court case. And if that's what occurs instead of a renewed focus on making the budget work for Texans, then everyone loses.