Real Estate Rumblings

Another record year ahead? Houston real estate will outpace the nation in 2015, top economist says

The Houston housing market, coming off the strongest October on record, will outperform the nation in 2015, says one of the nation’s leading residential real estate economists. Home sales will be strong in the Bayou City next year and home prices will continue to rise, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

Yun praised the Houston market in an exclusive interview with CultureMap in New Orleans, where the Realtors association concluded its national convention earlier this week.

Across the nation, Yun predicts that home prices will rise over 4 percent in 2015 as the economy improves. But Houston home prices will do better than the national average, Yun says. Houston will also surpass the nation’s projected 7 percent increase in the number of homes sold next year.

“Houston should beat those figures,” Yun says. “Houston is an exceptional market. The city’s job growth situation easily outpaces the country.”

Downtown boom

What else does Yun see in Houston’s real estate future? … A boom in downtown.

“I think there will be more demand, particularly for a city the size of Houston, for more downtown living in the future to avoid the traffic,” Yun says. “In the past, 10 years ago, Houston was a ghost town after work, but now it is becoming a 24-hour city.”

“In the past, 10 years ago, Houston was a ghost town after work, but now it is becoming a 24-hour city.”

The optimism about the Houston market remains high in virtually all quarters. Houston added about 120,000 new jobs over the last 12 months, a growth pace that has been achieved only a few times in the city’s history.

The strong economy, with mortgage interest rates around 4 percent and a very tight inventory of homes for sale, have stoked the market.

Houston had 6,639 single-family home sales in October, the strongest October on record and a 12 percent over last October, according to the Houston Association of Realtors.

The inventory of homes for sale is exceptionally tight – a condition that has prevailed in the Houston market in recent years. Houston has a 2.8-months supply of homes for sale, much lower than the national average of 5.3-months.

“The inventory remains very low,” says Houston Realtor Amy Bernstein of Bernstein Realty. “In some areas and some price ranges are still seeing multiple offers. But not all areas.”

Although the pace will be slowing as the holiday season nears, multiple offers are still happening frequently in the Memorial area, inside the Loop, parts of Katy and The Woodlands, Bernstein says.

Strong outlook

The outlook for Houston realty in 2015 remains strong.

“I’m not seeing any signs of a bubble, “ Bernstein says. “With interest rates remaining low and inventory staying very low, I expect 2015 to be a strong year for the real estate market.”

Home prices continue to rise in Houston, hitting an all-time high for an October.

Pending sales, an indicator of future activity, was up 9 percent in October over the previous year, indicating a strong finish to the year.

Home prices continue to rise in Houston, hitting an all-time high for an October. The single-family median price in October was $192,000 and the average price was $262,013, the Houston Association of Realtors reports.

For the month of October, the total dollar volume for all properties sold through HAR was $2 billion, up 22 percent from $1.7 billion a year earlier.

“Most Realtors are not accustomed to this brisk a pace of home sales in Houston this late in the year,” said HAR Chair Chaille Ralph with Heritage Texas Properties.

Ralph Bivins, editor of Realty News Report, is a past president of the National Association of Real Estate Editors.

Lawrence Yun speaks to agents at the National Association of Realtors annual convention in New Orleans, which concluded on Monday.

Photo by Ralph Bivins

Lawrence Yun speaks to agents at the National Association of Realtors annual convention in New Orleans, which concluded on Monday.

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THE AMERICAN DREAM

How long it takes to save for a home down payment in Houston

iStock

Houstonians don't have to save long to afford a down payment.

Saving for a down payment remains one of the biggest barriers to homeownership nationwide, but a new report from Realtor.com shows San Antonio area buyers face a far shorter wait than most Americans.

According to the real estate site’s 2025 analysis, the typical U.S. household needs seven years to save for a standard down payment, a notable improvement from the 12-year peak in 2022. Still, the timeline remains roughly double the pre-pandemic norm, reflecting higher home prices, larger down payments, and lower household savings rates.

Houston, however, stood out as one of the most accessible major metros in the nation. The Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands metro boasted one of the shortest time sto save for a down payment among the nation’s 50 largest markets, with households needing just 3.5 years to reach a typical down payment, according to the study.

The report found that Houston’s median down payment from January through November was $14,927. A median household income of $83,452 was estimated to produce an annual savings of $4,228. Notably, San Antonio, the only other Texas city included in the report, had the shortest time to save for a down payment at just 1.3 years.

Nationally, the time needed to save has shortened as home price growth cooled and affordability modestly improved. Still, saving for a down payment takes significantly longer than it did before the pandemic.

“Higher home prices and intensified competition have pushed typical down payments higher, at the same time that inflation and rising household expenses have reduced savings rates,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, in a release. “Although conditions have improved since 2022, today’s timeline shows that saving for a home takes meaningfully longer than it did before the pandemic, especially in high-cost markets.”

Lower savings rates have played a key role. The U.S. personal savings rate has averaged 5.1 percent of income so far in 2025, down from the pre-pandemic norm of 6.5 percent, limiting how quickly households can build funds for upfront housing costs. Meanwhile, the typical down payment has more than doubled over the past six years — rising from about $13,900 in the third quarter of 2019 to $30,400 in the third quarter of 2025.

In high-cost coastal metros, the impact is far more severe. Saving for a down payment can take 20 to more than 35 years in California cities like San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, and San Diego, effectively sidelining many first-time and moderate-income buyers.

“In high-cost markets, the typical down payment alone exceeds a full year of household income,” said Hannah Jones, Realtor.com senior economic research analyst. “That reality makes homeownership feel unattainable for many buyers, particularly younger households trying to enter the market for the first time.”

Despite those challenges, the report notes that roughly three-quarters of Americans still consider homeownership part of the American dream. Realtor.com says easing rents could help first-time buyers save more, while repeat buyers may use accumulated savings to reduce loan balances and manage higher monthly payments.

“Saving consistently, even in small amounts, is a meaningful first step toward homeownership,” Jones said. “In today’s market, building that financial cushion can make a real difference when buyers are ready to act.”

home market economy down payments home ownership real estate