There is an entire Internet subculture devoted to predicting the Oscars. Like sporting events, it has its own Vegas odds-makers, and several blogs are devoted to handicapping the ceremony. Hard and fast rules don't work, and even renowned statistician Nate Silver wasn't as good at predicting who got little gold men as he was at predicting how the 2012 election would unfold.
No matter. If you followed my advice last year, you went with a tried-and-true regimen of pre-Oscar indicators, gut instinct and a resolution to not take it so seriously. You also got 18 out of 24 categories correct, which is more than enough to win most office Oscar pools.
This year should be no different if you follow my foolproof guide to the Oscars. These are the winners wrought by the awards season narrative, and I'll be absolutely sure of each one — until a few of them are wrong on Sunday.
Argo has made a late-season push to the front of the pack for Best Picture. Hollywood loves itself, so a movie about making movies (sort of) could swoop in and prevent the solid but straightforward Lincoln from Mitt-Romney-ing its way to victory.
Argo should pick up Editing and Adapted Screenplay awards as well, while Lincoln consoles itself with wins for performances by Daniel Day-Lewis and Tommy Lee Jones and Steven Spielberg's direction.
In the other major categories, Jennifer Lawrence wins Best Actress by a nose for Silver Linings Playbook, while Anne Hathaway wins Best Supporting Actress in a landslide (pretty much just for singing the Susan Boyle song from Les Mis, which will also win Sound Mixing for its innovative live-singing production).
In a wide-open race, Django Unchained stands poised to take Original Screenplay.
Life of Pi should take a bunch of technical awards for looking pretty. Skyfall will become only the third Bond movie to win an Oscar, taking home both Sound Effects Editing and Best Original Song for Adele's titular ballad.
Anna Karennina easily wins Best Costumes, and The Hobbit wins makeup for dusting off the hobbit feet.
That leaves Wreck-It Ralph winning Best Animated Feature, Amour (a Best Picture nominee) easily winning Best Foreign Language Film, Searching For Sugar Man taking Best Documentary and, finally, the unpredictable short films.
Getting one short film right is a good day: at least Paperman (a partially hand-drawn industry favorite) is a lock for Animated Short. I have gone with Curfew in Live Action Short (it has a cute little kid), and Mondays at Racine (it's about cancer) in Documentary Short.
Without further ado, here's my comprehensive guide to the Academy Awards. Best of luck! And if I'm way off, I promise all of your money back.
Picture: Argo Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables Original Screenplay: Django Unchained Adapted Screenplay:Argo Editing:Argo Cinematography:Life of Pi Score:Life of Pi Song: "Skyfall" by Adele from Skyfall Art Direction:Life of Pi Costumes:Anna Karennina Sound Mixing:Les Miserables Sound Effects Editing:Skyfall Makeup: The Hobbit Visual Effects: Life of Pi Foreign:Amour Animated Feature:Wreck-It Ralph Doc Feature:Searching for Sugar Man Doc Short:Mondays at Racine Animated Short: Paperman Live Short: Curfew
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In the top six categories of CultureMap's "Pick the Oscar Winners" Contest, readers agreed with Duncan except for Best Supporting Actor, where the pick was Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained. And in a surprise for Best Director, newcomer Benh Zeitlin, who directed the haunting Beastsof the Southern Wild, narrowly beat out Spielberg in our readers poll.
Django Unchained is poised to take Original Screenplay.
Photo courtesy of The Weinstein Company
Django Unchained is poised to take Original Screenplay.
The movies of writer/director Joe Swanberg have always been an acquired taste, as he prefers to give his actors a loose framework of a story and let them improvise most of their lines to give the films a more natural feel. Sometimes that approach can yield great results, and sometimes — as in The Sun Never Sets — it can result in addled and maddening storytelling.
Wendy (Dakota Fanning) is in her early 30s and at a crossroads in her life. When a friend announces she’s pregnant, she starts to re-evaluate what she wants, including her two-year relationship with the older Jack (Jake Johnson). Although they love each other, their disagreements on having more children and extracurricular activities call their long-term viability into question.
Jack, not wanting Wendy to settle, encourages her to explore her options where they live — Anchorage, Alaska — telling her he’ll be waiting should she strike out. What he doesn’t expect is that Wendy’s ex-boyfriend, Chuck (Cory Michael Smith), has returned to the city, giving her an attractive alternative. The three engage in a love triangle that proves frustrating and confusing for both the participants and the viewers.
What works best about the film is its location in Alaska, which rarely gets showcased in movies, and even more rarely in the way it is here. The story takes place in warmer months, and Swanberg gives his characters multiple opportunities to be outside, showing off Anchorage’s harbor, surrounding mountains, and seemingly vibrant city life. The subtle but effective way Swanberg frames various scenes makes the landscape enormously appealing.
It’s too bad, then, that the story never measures up to its surroundings. Too often Fanning, Johnson, Smith, and others seem to be grasping for their next line, unsure of what they want their character to do or say next. That lets their scenes mimic real conversations, but you might not realize how much you want scripted dialogue until you see actors trying to come up with their own in the moment.
The larger issue is that there’s no consistency from scene to scene about where the plot is heading. The characters of Wendy, Jack, and Chuck are extremely wishy-washy about their desires, with each of them vacillating back-and-forth in just how much they want to be with each other. Depending on your experience, this may or may not be true to life, but watching it is excruciating and not enjoyable or romantic in the slightest.
As actors, Fanning, Johnson, and Smith are talented and interesting, with each capable of connecting with viewers in different ways. But working in improvisation is a different beast, and only Johnson — who has worked with Swanberg multiple times — seems truly at home. A few others, like Debby Ryan and Anna Konkle, do well in the format and maybe deserved bigger parts.
Swanberg has proven in the past that his method of filmmaking can be insightful and entertaining, but that is not the case here. In The Sun Never Sets, his hands-off approach is a detriment to the flow of the film and the story as a whole, resulting in an experience that is far from what most viewers will want to go through.
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The Sun Never Sets is now playing in select theaters.