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Houston could be 2nd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

Everyone wants to live here.

Start spreading the news: Houston will eclipse New York City as the 2nd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Houston's population could swell to 31.38 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land is currently the No. 5 biggest metro in the country with a population of more than 7.2 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the second highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (124,281 residents), following Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (170,396 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

"The bigger threat may be more destructive hurricanes from off the Gulf of Mexico," the report's author says. "Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and major storms like that could become more common. A historic flood also nailed the city in 2019. Planning for a future of these climate-induced threats will be critical for Houston."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Houston, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)

These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.

The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

population growth census bureau reports houston

safe suburbs

Houston neighbor shines on new 2025 list of safest American cities

Photo courtesy of Visit Pearland

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New Year's resolutions can come in many forms, and if relocating to a safe Houston-area suburb is high on the list for 2025, Pearland is the place to be.

Pearland was declared the No. 13 safest city in America for 2025 in a new study by personal finance advisors MoneyGeek. The website's experts examined the most recent FBI crime statistics (from 2023) to determine the cost of crime in 292 U.S. cities with populations over 100,000 residents.

The estimated cost of crime in this Houston suburb – which the study calculated as the "societal cost of crime per resident" – was $471 in 2023.

Pearland's crime cost per capita is far lower the national crime cost, which was $2,178 per resident.

The report also analyzed the city's violent crime and property crime rates, and Pearland had the 11th lowest rate of violent crime in 2023 with only 106 crimes committed for every 100,000 residents.

The city didn't fare as well with its property crime rate; there were 1,669 property crimes committed in 2023 per 100,000 residents, which was the 68th lowest rate out of all 292 U.S. cities.

However, that's still a better rate than most places in the country. Pearland residents can be smug that they don't live in Oakland, California, which had the highest property crime rate in the nation with 10,117 crimes committed per 100,000 residents.

Finally, MoneyGeek determined each city's total cost of crime, which the study defines as the "economic losses attributed to crime and its cost to society (individuals, community and nationally) in millions."

In this metric, Pearland had the seventh-lowest total crime cost, which was less than $60 million in 2023.

While some of these statistics may seem scary, Tulane University associate professor of political science Geoffrey T. Dancy warns it is unwise to make assumptions about a city based solely on its crime rates.

"We live in an unequal society," said Dancy in the report. "One often overlooked indicator of that inequality is who gets to engage in the politics of safety. Those who are objectively safe often fear crime and act on it in the counterproductive policies they support. Those who are actually victimized by crime and terrorized by gun violence pay the price and are rarely heard."

Elsewhere in Texas, the Dallas suburb of Frisco nearly topped the list as the No. 2 safest city in America with a $287 crime cost per capita. Other safe Texas cities in the report include Plano (No. 18), Sugar Land (No. 20), McKinney (No. 22), Round Rock (No. 26), Grand Prairie (No. 42), and League City (No. 48).

The top 10 safest American cities for 2025 are:

No. 1 – Ramapo Town, New York
No. 2 – Frisco, Texas
No. 3 – Irvine, California
No. 4 – Fishers, Indiana
No. 5 – Lakewood Township, New Jersey
No. 6 – Cary, North Carolina
No. 7 – Pembroke Pines, Florida
No. 8 – Elk Grove, California
No. 9 – Surprise, Arizona
No. 10 – Sterling Heights, Michigan

For the purpose of the study, violent crime rates were determined based on the number of murders and non-negligent manslaughters, rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults per 100,000 residents; and property crimes were defined as the rates of burglary, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft offenses per 100,000 residents.

houston suburbs rankings pearland