It’s been about a week since the Michelin Guide confirmed its plans to bring its vaunted restaurant ratings Texas. Through a partnership with Travel Texas and local tourism boards in Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio, Michelin’s famously anonymous inspectors have already been in the field evaluating restaurants for a range of recognition.

Of course, that starts with the famed Michelin stars, which are typically awarded to fine dining restaurants. Restaurants may receive one, two, or three stars.

As the guide explains on its website:

• One Michelin Star is awarded to restaurants using top quality ingredients, where dishes with distinct flavors are prepared to a consistently high standard.
• Two Michelin Stars are awarded when the personality and talent of the chef are evident in their expertly crafted dishes; their food is refined and inspired.
• Three Michelin Stars is the highest award, given for the superlative cooking of chefs at the peak of their profession; their cooking is elevated to an art form and some of their dishes are destined to become classics.

In addition, Michelin issues Bib Gourmand awards to more affordable restaurants that still display a high level of culinary excellence and Recommended awards to restaurants that don’t quite qualify for either of the other two designations. Green stars are given to restaurants that show leadership in sustainability.

Like many other restaurant-obsessed Houstonians, speculating about which restaurants will receive stars has become a part-time hobby for us. In that spirit, let’s make some predictions.

First, a few things to keep in mind. In the years the guide returned to Los Angeles (2019) and the year it debuted in Miami (2022), it awarded stars to 25 and and 11 restaurants, respectively. Therefore, it seems reasonable to expect that Houston will fall somewhere in between with between 10 and 15 restaurants earning stars.

Miami also hints at how many stars each restaurant is likely to receive. Only an outpost of the globally-renown L’Atelier de Joël Robuchon received two stars that first year, and it remains the only Florida restaurant to hold more than one star. With that as a guide, it would be a surprise if any Houston restaurant received more than one star.

Thinking about the world of Houston fine dining, some restaurants seem more likely than others to earn Michelin’s attention. Just for fun, let’s establish three categories: Locks, Probably, and Fingers Crossed. Each category is presented in alphabetical order.

Locks

BCN: The Montrose restaurant serves elevated Spanish cuisine, which is a style that the guide has recognized worldwide. It also offers a very refined dining experience and recently upgraded its culinary talent with the addition of chef Fernando Recio, whose resume includes two star recipients Mugaritz and Saison. MAD, its sister restaurant, is something of a sleeper for a star.

Katami: Not only is the guide famous for liking upscale Japanese restaurants, this one features the culinary talents of Manabu Horiuchi (known as Hori-san), every Houston chef’s favorite Houston chef. The restaurant’s attention to rigorously sourced ingredients and classic preparations will serve it well when the inspectors submit their evaluations.

Le Jardinier: Both the New York City and Miami locations of the vegetable forward, French fine dining restaurant already hold stars. Excluding Houston would be a weird snub, especially since founding chef Alain Verzeroli explained on CultureMap’s “What’s Eric Eating” podcast that all three locations operate at the same high standard.

March: A restaurant serving an elegant, European-inspired tasting menu is practically inspector catnip. Factor in the deep wine list, elegant service, and stunning interior, and it would be a huge upset for March not to receive at least one star.

Probably

MF Sushi: Like Katami, Chris Kinjo’s Museum District restaurant serves rigorously-sourced fish that’s flown in from Japan. When the chef is working behind the counter, an omakase at MF is one of Houston’s most exciting meals. Given the guide’s interest in Japanese cuisine, it seems likely to earn a star.

Neo: No one questions that the food prepared by chefs Paolo Justo and Luis Mercado at this intimate omakase counter is worthy of recognition. The Uchi veterans have sharpened their skills through regular travel and collaborations with other top chefs. As long as the inspectors are comfortable with the restaurant’s setting inside a Montrose clothing studio, it’s in.

Tatemó: The 2024 CultureMap Tastemaker Awards Restaurant of the Year winner offers the kind of chef-forward, personal cooking that will garner Michelin’s interest, and, as both a two-time James Beard Award finalist and a Food & Wine Best New Chef recipient, chef-owner Emmanuel Chavez has proven he can stand on a national stage. Hopefully, the inspectors aren’t thrown off by the humble, strip center location and lack of alcoholic beverage offerings.

Theodore Rex: Speaking of the Beard Awards, Best Chef: Southwest winner Justin Yu continues to operate one of Houston’s most thoughtful, ingredient-driven kitchens. Its location in downtown’s Warehouse District and humble decor may not quite match what someone expects at a fine dining restaurant, but the Wagyu beef dumplings, tomato toast, and other fan favorites should push it over the top.

Fingers Crossed

Baso: The Basque-inspired live fire restaurant has been earning raves from diners and critics alike, and co-chefs Jacques Varon and Max Lappe bring critical experience working in Michelin-starred restaurants. The pork chop, venison tartare, and charred shrimp demonstrate the chef’s skills, but the inspectors might want the restaurant to complete a full year before granting it a star.

Bludorn: Chef-owner Aaron Bludorn has said that the stress of maintaining Cafe Boulud’s star weighed on him, so he probably doesn’t want to repeat that experience in a new city. While it’s certainly possible that Bludorn is a little too big and a little too loud to earn a star, it is also extremely consistent, French-influenced, and ingredient-driven, which are all qualities that should capture the inspector’s attention.

An Indian Restaurant: One of Houston’s Indian fine dining restaurants will likely earn a star, but figuring out whether it will be Amrina, Kiran’s, Musaafer, or Verandah is tricky. All of them serve tasting menus that could capture the guide’s attention. Perhaps chef Mayank Istwal’s wide-ranging menu and Musaafer’s over-the-top decor will push it over the top. Then again, Amrina chef Jassi Bindra earned Michelin recognition when he worked in Washington, D.C. Perhaps one bite of Kiran Verma’s tandoori lobster or Sunil Srivastava’s biryani could be enough to distinguish their restaurants from the others.

Little’s Oyster Bar: Chef Jason Ryczek and his team have shown a high degree of consistency since Pappas opened the upscale seafood restaurant last year. His passion for sourcing high quality ingredients — including harvesting his own caviar — should impress the inspectors, too. A commitment to sustainability could even land the restaurant a green star.

Nancy’s Hustle: Can a restaurant known for its burger earn a star? Let’s hope so, considering the rest of chef and co-owner Jason Vaughan’s menu, which includes regular new additions and sources from top local farms. While Michelin says its inspectors only care about the food on the plate, Nancy’s well-sourced wine list and consistently friendly service will serve it well, too.

Pappas Bros. Steakhouse: Admittedly, the guide doesn’t seem to hold steakhouses in very high regard, but if, in a nod to Texas, it were inclined to recognize one, it would be Pappas Bros. The restaurant shows respect for ingredients by doing all of its dry-aging in house. It also has the deepest wine list in Houston and some of the most polished service. Just make sure the inspectors know to add jalapeños to their potatoes au gratin and to ask for fried shrimp as a supplement to their steak orders.

Eyes on 2025

This year has been such a dynamic time for new restaurants that a few places are simply too new to be in the conversation for stars this year. They include:

• Ishtia, the new Native-inspired tasting menu concept from Eculent chef David Skinner.
• The Marigold Club: Goodnight Hospitality’s ode to Mayfair London.
• Turner’s Cut: Ben Berg’s steakhouse devoted to all-out luxury.

Good luck next year.

Bib Gourmand

As for the Bib Gourmands, if Pizzana, which earned one for its Los Angeles location, is any indication of what sort of casual restaurants the guide is looking for, Houston is flush with informal, relatively affordable establishments that should look forward to awards. Can the inspectors get to all of the worthy candidates in year one? Probably not. We’ll grouse about the inevitable snubs — particularly in Chinatown and Houston's suburbs — but here are 11 that come to mind:

• Aga’s: The South Asian community’s favorite restaurant for food that tastes even better than mom’s.
• Burger-Chan: Houstonians love burgers, and an Asian-inspired burger joint that makes its own scallion aioli and sambal mayo seems distinctive enough to make the cut.
• Crawfish & Noodles: Still the gold standard for Viet-Cajun cuisine.
• Himalaya: The Ghandi District favorite has been operating at a high level for 20 years.
• Jūn: A highly personal restaurant from chefs Evelyn Garcia and Henry Liu that could also get a star.
• The Original Ninfa’s: The guide wouldn’t be doing Houston justice without at least one Tex-Mex eatery. Choosing this East End restaurant would be a good nod to the city’s history.
• Phat Eatery: The Malaysian restaurant in Katy has been delighting diners with its beef rendang, roti cannai, and other favorites.
• Pizzana: If it’s good enough to earn one in LA, why not Houston?
• Street to Kitchen: The lively Thai restaurant led by James Bead Award winner Benchawan Jabthong Painter could also be in line for a star.
• Truth BBQ: At least one barbecue joint is going to get a Bib.
• Urbe: At least one taqueria is making the list. Michelin probably plays it safe by choosing the one owned by Beard Award winner Hugo Ortega.

  

Photo by Eva Kolenko

Tatemó seems likely to earn a star.

If none — or very few — of these predictions come true, that’s okay. Writers for this publication have a history of being spectacularly wrong.