Houstonians have learned not to expect many concessions from the unhabitable South Texas weather, so we make only three humble requests: Sunny and clear on Memorial Day, Labor Day and the Fourth of July, and maybe a light snow around Christmas once a decade.

But it looks like this year Mother Nature isn't playing along. Even though newly-dubbed Hurricane Alex is heading towards a landfall south of the Rio Grande; scattered thunderstorms, potential flooding and a three-foot storm surge are in the weekend forecast.

The question is how much the potential storms will upset Houston plans for a festive Fourth. According to weather.com, by Sunday, the chance of precipitation drops below 50 percent for the first time in July.

The thousands that teem to Galveston and Lake Conroe might have second thoughts, but proactive local partiers could outwit Alex by keeping plans loose and heading outside for barbecue, sparklers and tanning when the skies permit, but also having an indoor space nearby ready with a contingency plan — after all, burgers and bathing suits are fun, but so is poker and pizza (and there's no law against sporting a bikini indoors).

Galveston doesn't figure to be nearly as effected as farther-away, Texas-beach escapes like Corpus Christi, Rockport and most of all South Padre Island. Many South Padre visitors have already hightailed it out of town and businesses are boarding up.

Organizers for Freedom Over Texas, the largest Houston Independence Day event, with fireworks and a live concert featuring Pat Green, say the show will go on, rain or shine. But lightning would threaten any large outdoor event, and fireworks are riskier in strong winds than can shift debris and embers onto spectators.

But this is America for a reason — we didn't beat the Brits over 200 years ago by being afraid of a little rain.