Real Estate Rumblings

Hot Houston home prices may cool in 2020, real estate experts say

Hot Houston home prices may cool in 2020, real estate experts say

House for sale sign
Houston home prices are predicted to pace the rest of nation or even fall behind. iStock

Houston's scorching real estate market might just cool off in 2020. In a survey conducted by real estate marketplace Zillow and Pulsenomics, industry experts predicted home values in Houston will keep pace with the nation this year — or even drop.

In what come as a surprise to some, Houston ranked the lowest of the Texas cities on the list, earning a score of 10 and just 32 percent of experts predicting that home values will outpace the rest of the country. The majority believe Houston home prices will either pace with the rest of the country (44 percent) or fall behind (22 percent).

To find the results, Zillow asked 110 U.S. economists and real estate experts to rate 25 American cities based on where they expected home values to grow.

But this is Texas, so let's focus on that, shall we? Across the state, major cities will continue to see rising home values, Zillow predicts. Booming Austin ranked No. 1, scoring 76, the highest on the list and 17 points higher than the second-ranked Charlotte, which scored 59. Atlanta and Nashville scored 51 and 49, respectively.

Dallas' red-hot housing market will continue in 2020. The report predicts Dallas will be top-5 housing market, landing just behind Austin (No. 1); Charlotte, North Carolina (No. 2); Atlanta, Georgia (No. 3); and Nashville, Tennessee (No. 4). Dallas actually ties with Phoenix, Arizona for the No. 5 spot.

With its score of 32, San Antonio home values are predicted to be similar to Dallas. Forty-four percent of respondents expect San Antonio home values to outperform the national average while the exact same number expect them to stay the same. Just 12 percent expect the Alamo City to see a decline in home values this year.

Zillow predicts home values to grow by 2.8 percent across the country this year. Based on that number, 83 percent of survey respondents expect Austin home values to outperform that baseline, the largest margin received by any of the cities on the list.

Charlotte was the only city where no expert polled expected a decline in home prices this year. 

Interestingly, home values in the nation's bigger tech hubs — San Francisco, San Jose, and Los Angeles — were all predicted to fall in 2020. 

"And panelists didn’t just expect those large California markets to underperform, but maybe still grow slightly — in many cases, they said they expected the typical home values in those places to outright fall, ending 2020 lower than where they began the year," Zillow says in a release. "Panelists, 42 total, who thought at least one major metro would see falling home values in 2020 generally agreed that California markets would make that list."